Methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic

Employing historical records we are able to estimate the risk of premature death during the second plague pandemic, and identify the Black Death and pestis secunda epidemics. We show a novel method of calculating Bayesian credible intervals for a ratio of beta distributed random variables and use th...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, Maria, Finnie, Thomas J. R., Sloane, Barney, Hall, Ian M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2019
Materias:
Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6386284/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30794569
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211633
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author Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, Maria
Finnie, Thomas J. R.
Sloane, Barney
Hall, Ian M.
author_facet Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, Maria
Finnie, Thomas J. R.
Sloane, Barney
Hall, Ian M.
author_sort Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, Maria
collection PubMed
description Employing historical records we are able to estimate the risk of premature death during the second plague pandemic, and identify the Black Death and pestis secunda epidemics. We show a novel method of calculating Bayesian credible intervals for a ratio of beta distributed random variables and use this to quantify uncertainty of relative risk estimates for these two epidemics which we consider in a 2 × 2 contingency table framework.
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spelling pubmed-63862842019-03-09 Methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, Maria Finnie, Thomas J. R. Sloane, Barney Hall, Ian M. PLoS One Research Article Employing historical records we are able to estimate the risk of premature death during the second plague pandemic, and identify the Black Death and pestis secunda epidemics. We show a novel method of calculating Bayesian credible intervals for a ratio of beta distributed random variables and use this to quantify uncertainty of relative risk estimates for these two epidemics which we consider in a 2 × 2 contingency table framework. Public Library of Science 2019-02-22 /pmc/articles/PMC6386284/ /pubmed/30794569 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211633 Text en © 2019 Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, Maria
Finnie, Thomas J. R.
Sloane, Barney
Hall, Ian M.
Methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic
title Methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic
title_full Methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic
title_fullStr Methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic
title_full_unstemmed Methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic
title_short Methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic
title_sort methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6386284/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30794569
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211633
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