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Role of sea-ice initialization in climate predictability over the Weddell Sea

Potential impact of sea-ice initialization on the interannual climate predictability over the Weddell Sea is investigated using a coupled general circulation model. Climate variability in the Weddell Sea is generally believed to have association with remote forcing such as El Niño-Southern Oscillati...

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Autores principales: Morioka, Yushi, Doi, Takeshi, Iovino, Doroteaciro, Masina, Simona, Behera, Swadhin K.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6387978/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30799436
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39421-w
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author Morioka, Yushi
Doi, Takeshi
Iovino, Doroteaciro
Masina, Simona
Behera, Swadhin K.
author_facet Morioka, Yushi
Doi, Takeshi
Iovino, Doroteaciro
Masina, Simona
Behera, Swadhin K.
author_sort Morioka, Yushi
collection PubMed
description Potential impact of sea-ice initialization on the interannual climate predictability over the Weddell Sea is investigated using a coupled general circulation model. Climate variability in the Weddell Sea is generally believed to have association with remote forcing such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annual Mode. However, sea-ice variability in the Weddell Sea has been recently suggested to play additional roles in modulating local atmospheric variability through changes in surface air temperature and near-surface baroclinicity. Reforecast experiments from September 1st, in which the model’s sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice concentration (SIC) are initialized with observations using nudging schemes, show improvements in predicting the observed SIC anomalies in the Weddell Sea up to four months ahead, compared to the other experiments in which only the model’s SST is initialized. During austral spring (Oct–Dec) of lower-than-normal sea-ice years in the Weddell Sea, reforecast experiments with the SST and SIC initializations reasonably predict high surface air temperature anomalies in the Weddell Sea and high sea-level pressure anomalies over the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. These results suggest that accurate initialization of sea-ice conditions during austral winter is necessary for skillful prediction of climate variability over the Weddell Sea during austral spring.
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spelling pubmed-63879782019-02-27 Role of sea-ice initialization in climate predictability over the Weddell Sea Morioka, Yushi Doi, Takeshi Iovino, Doroteaciro Masina, Simona Behera, Swadhin K. Sci Rep Article Potential impact of sea-ice initialization on the interannual climate predictability over the Weddell Sea is investigated using a coupled general circulation model. Climate variability in the Weddell Sea is generally believed to have association with remote forcing such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annual Mode. However, sea-ice variability in the Weddell Sea has been recently suggested to play additional roles in modulating local atmospheric variability through changes in surface air temperature and near-surface baroclinicity. Reforecast experiments from September 1st, in which the model’s sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice concentration (SIC) are initialized with observations using nudging schemes, show improvements in predicting the observed SIC anomalies in the Weddell Sea up to four months ahead, compared to the other experiments in which only the model’s SST is initialized. During austral spring (Oct–Dec) of lower-than-normal sea-ice years in the Weddell Sea, reforecast experiments with the SST and SIC initializations reasonably predict high surface air temperature anomalies in the Weddell Sea and high sea-level pressure anomalies over the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. These results suggest that accurate initialization of sea-ice conditions during austral winter is necessary for skillful prediction of climate variability over the Weddell Sea during austral spring. Nature Publishing Group UK 2019-02-25 /pmc/articles/PMC6387978/ /pubmed/30799436 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39421-w Text en © The Author(s) 2019 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Morioka, Yushi
Doi, Takeshi
Iovino, Doroteaciro
Masina, Simona
Behera, Swadhin K.
Role of sea-ice initialization in climate predictability over the Weddell Sea
title Role of sea-ice initialization in climate predictability over the Weddell Sea
title_full Role of sea-ice initialization in climate predictability over the Weddell Sea
title_fullStr Role of sea-ice initialization in climate predictability over the Weddell Sea
title_full_unstemmed Role of sea-ice initialization in climate predictability over the Weddell Sea
title_short Role of sea-ice initialization in climate predictability over the Weddell Sea
title_sort role of sea-ice initialization in climate predictability over the weddell sea
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6387978/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30799436
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39421-w
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