Is waist-to-height ratio the best predictive indicator of hypertension incidence? A cohort study

BACKGROUND: The best anthropometric indicator to verify the association between obesity and hypertension (HTN) has not been established. We conducted this study to evaluate and compare the discriminatory power of waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) in relation to body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in predicting HTN after 13 years of follow-up. METHODS: This study was an observational prospective cohort study performed in the city of Firminópolis, in Brazilian’s midwest. The cohort baseline (phase 1) was initiated in 2002 with the evaluation of a representative sample of the normotensive population (≥ 18 years of age). The incidence of HTN was evaluated as the outcome (phase 2). Sociodemographic, dietary and lifestyle variables were used to adjust proportional hazards models and evaluate risk of HTN according to anthropometric indices. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the predictive capacity of these indices. The best HTN predictor cut-offs were obtained based on sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: A total of 471 patients with a mean age of 38.9 ± 12.3 years were included in phase 1. The mean follow-up was 13.2 years, and 207 subjects developed HTN. BMI, WC and WHtR were associated with risk of HTN incidence and had similar power in predicting the disease. However, the associations were only significant for women. The cut-off points with a better HTN predictive capacity were in agreement with current recommendations, except for the WC in men. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that both overall obesity (BMI) and central obesity (WC and WHtR) anthropometric indicators can be used in this population to evaluate the risk of developing hypertension. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-5177-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.