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Quantitative impacts of incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus

The current investigation applied a Bayesian modeling approach to a unique experimental transmission study to estimate the occurrence of transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) during the incubation phase amongst group-housed pigs. The primary outcome was that transmission occurred approximatel...

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Autores principales: Arzt, Jonathan, Branan, Matthew A., Delgado, Amy H., Yadav, Shankar, Moreno-Torres, Karla I., Tildesley, Michael J., Stenfeldt, Carolina
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6389902/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30804426
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39029-0
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author Arzt, Jonathan
Branan, Matthew A.
Delgado, Amy H.
Yadav, Shankar
Moreno-Torres, Karla I.
Tildesley, Michael J.
Stenfeldt, Carolina
author_facet Arzt, Jonathan
Branan, Matthew A.
Delgado, Amy H.
Yadav, Shankar
Moreno-Torres, Karla I.
Tildesley, Michael J.
Stenfeldt, Carolina
author_sort Arzt, Jonathan
collection PubMed
description The current investigation applied a Bayesian modeling approach to a unique experimental transmission study to estimate the occurrence of transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) during the incubation phase amongst group-housed pigs. The primary outcome was that transmission occurred approximately one day prior to development of visible signs of disease (posterior median 21 hours, 95% CI: 1.1–45.0). Updated disease state durations were incorporated into a simulation model to examine the importance of addressing preclinical transmission in the face of robust response measures. Simulation of FMD outbreaks in the US pig production sector demonstrated that including a preclinical infectious period of one day would result in a 40% increase in the median number of farms affected (166 additional farms and 664,912 pigs euthanized) compared to the scenario of no preclinical transmission, assuming suboptimal outbreak response. These findings emphasize the importance of considering transmission of FMD during the incubation phase in modeling and response planning.
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spelling pubmed-63899022019-02-28 Quantitative impacts of incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus Arzt, Jonathan Branan, Matthew A. Delgado, Amy H. Yadav, Shankar Moreno-Torres, Karla I. Tildesley, Michael J. Stenfeldt, Carolina Sci Rep Article The current investigation applied a Bayesian modeling approach to a unique experimental transmission study to estimate the occurrence of transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) during the incubation phase amongst group-housed pigs. The primary outcome was that transmission occurred approximately one day prior to development of visible signs of disease (posterior median 21 hours, 95% CI: 1.1–45.0). Updated disease state durations were incorporated into a simulation model to examine the importance of addressing preclinical transmission in the face of robust response measures. Simulation of FMD outbreaks in the US pig production sector demonstrated that including a preclinical infectious period of one day would result in a 40% increase in the median number of farms affected (166 additional farms and 664,912 pigs euthanized) compared to the scenario of no preclinical transmission, assuming suboptimal outbreak response. These findings emphasize the importance of considering transmission of FMD during the incubation phase in modeling and response planning. Nature Publishing Group UK 2019-02-25 /pmc/articles/PMC6389902/ /pubmed/30804426 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39029-0 Text en © The Author(s) 2019 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Arzt, Jonathan
Branan, Matthew A.
Delgado, Amy H.
Yadav, Shankar
Moreno-Torres, Karla I.
Tildesley, Michael J.
Stenfeldt, Carolina
Quantitative impacts of incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus
title Quantitative impacts of incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus
title_full Quantitative impacts of incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus
title_fullStr Quantitative impacts of incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus
title_full_unstemmed Quantitative impacts of incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus
title_short Quantitative impacts of incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus
title_sort quantitative impacts of incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6389902/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30804426
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39029-0
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