Absolute risk and risk factors for stroke mortality in patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD): population-based cohort study using data linkage

INTRODUCTION: People with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) have up to 30-fold higher risk of stroke than the general population. OBJECTIVE: To determine risk factors associated with stroke death in the ESKD population. METHODS: We identified all patients with incident ESKD in Australia (1980–2013) and New Zealand (1988–2012) from the Australian and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry (ANZDATA) registry. We ascertained underlying cause of death from data linkage with national death registries and risk factors from ANZDATA. Using a competing risks multivariable regression model, we estimated cumulative incidence of stroke and non-stroke deaths, and risk factors for stroke deaths (adjusted sub-HR, SHR). RESULTS: We included 60 823 people with ESKD. There were 941 stroke deaths and 33 377 non-stroke deaths during 381 874 person-years of follow-up. Overall, the cumulative incidence of stroke death was 0.9% and non-stroke death was 36.8% 5 years after starting ESKD treatment. The risk of stroke death was higher at older ages (SHR 1.92, 95% CI 1.45 to 2.55), in females (SHR 1.41, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.64), in people with cerebrovascular disease (SHR 2.39, 95% CI 1.99 to 2.87), with ESKD caused by hypertensive/renovascular disease (SHR 1.39, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.78) or polycystic kidney disease (SHR 1.38, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.90), with earlier year of ESKD treatment initiation (SHR 1.93, 95% CI 1.56 to 2.39) and receiving dialysis (transplant vs haemodialysis SHR 0.27, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.84). CONCLUSION: Patients with ESKD with higher risk of stroke death are older, women, with cerebrovascular disease, with hypertensive/renovascular or polycystic kidney disease cause of ESKD, with earlier year of ESKD treatment and receiving dialysis. These groups may benefit from targeted stroke prevention interventions.