Inter-relationship between subtropical Pacific sea surface temperature, Arctic sea ice concentration, and North Atlantic Oscillation in recent summers

The inter-relationship between subtropical western–central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentrations in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in summer are investigated over the period 1980–2016. It is shown that the Arctic response to the remote impact of the Pacific SST is more dominant in recent summers, leading to a frequent occurrence of the negative phase of the NAO following the STWCPSST increase. Lag–correlations of STWCPSST positive (negative) anomalies in spring with the negative (positive) NAO and SICBS loss (recovery) in summer have increased over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4–0.5 with significance at the 5 percent level. Both observations and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments suggest that the positive STWCPSST anomaly and subsequent planetary-scale wave propagation act to increase the Arctic upper-level geopotential heights and temperatures in the following season. This response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. Connected with this atmospheric response, SIC and surface albedo decrease with an increase in the surface net shortwave flux over the Beaufort Sea. Examination of the surface energy balance (radiative and turbulent fluxes) reveals that surplus energy that can heat the surface increases over the Arctic, enhancing the SIC reduction.