Change of Kidney Function Is Associated With All‐Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Diseases: Results From the Kailuan Study

BACKGROUND: Current evaluation about the relationship of sequential change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and clinical outcomes are still inconsistent. We aimed to investigate the association between the change in kidney function over time and the risk of all‐cause mortality and cardiovascular disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: This prospective cohort including 37 691 participants aged ≥45 years used data from the Kailuan Health Registry. The relationship of the annual percentage and absolute change in eGFR and outcomes were analyzed with Cox proportional regression. The participants were stratified according to the quintiles distribution of the percentage annual change in eGFR (Q1–Q5). After adjusting for baseline covariates including initial eGFR, participants with annual eGFR decline were at significantly greater risk for all‐cause mortality (Q1: hazard ratio, 1.22 [95% confidence interval, 1.04–1.43]; Q2: 1.19 [1.01–1.40]) than noted for patients in Q3. Cardiovascular disease risk was also significantly higher in participants with annual eGFR decline (Q1 and Q2). No significantly increased risk of adverse outcomes was noted for patients with annual eGFR increased groups (Q4 and Q5). When considering the absolute eGFR annual change rate (no/mild/rapid decline), we obtained similar results in chronic kidney disease participants, whereas non–chronic kidney disease participants had less pronounced association of eGFR decline with cardiovascular disease, though not with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: A decline in eGFR over time is associated with higher risk for all‐cause mortality and cardiovascular disease independent of initial eGFR and other known risk factors at baseline. Our data support the serial evaluation of change in kidney function as a better prognostic indicator than single eGFR assessments.