The prevalence of nonlinearity and detection of ecological breakpoints across a land use gradient in streams

Human activities can alter aquatic ecosystems through the input of nutrients and carbon, but there is increasing evidence that these pressures induce nonlinear ecological responses. Nonlinear relationships can contain breakpoints where there is an unexpected change in an ecological response to an environmental driver, which may result in ecological regime shifts. We investigated the occurrence of nonlinearity and breakpoints in relationships between total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), total dissolved phosphorus (TDP), and total dissolved carbon (DOC) concentrations and ecological responses in streams with varying land uses. We calculated breakpoints using piecewise regression, two dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov (2DKS), and significant zero crossings (SiZer) methods. We found nonlinearity was common, occurring in half of all analyses, with some evidence of multiple breakpoints. Linearity, by contrast, occurred in less than 14% of cases, on average. Breakpoints were related to land use gradients, with 34–43% agricultural cover associated with DOC and TDN breakpoints, and 15% wetland and 9.5% urban land associated with DOC and nutrient breakpoints, respectively. While these breakpoints are likely specific to our study area, our study contributes to the growing literature of the prevalence and location of ecological breakpoints in streams, providing watershed managers potential criteria for catchment land use thresholds.