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Who will redislocate his/her shoulder? Predicting recurrent instability following a first traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation
OBJECTIVE: To develop a multivariate tool that would predict recurrent instability after a first-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation. METHODS: Participants (aged 16–40 years) were recruited across New Zealand into a prospective cohort study. Baseline data were collected during a telephone i...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BMJ Publishing Group
2019
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6407568/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30899544 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjsem-2018-000447 |
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author | Olds, Margie K Ellis, Richard Parmar, Priya Kersten, Paula |
author_facet | Olds, Margie K Ellis, Richard Parmar, Priya Kersten, Paula |
author_sort | Olds, Margie K |
collection | PubMed |
description | OBJECTIVE: To develop a multivariate tool that would predict recurrent instability after a first-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation. METHODS: Participants (aged 16–40 years) were recruited across New Zealand into a prospective cohort study. Baseline data were collected during a telephone interview and through examination of radiology records. Variables associated with recurrent instability were selected for the multivariate logistic regression model using backwards selection (p<0.10). Coefficients for those variables retained in the model were used to develop the predictive tool. RESULTS: Among the 128 participants, 36% had redislocated at least once in the first 12 months. Univariate analysis showed an increased likelihood of recurrent dislocation with bony Bankart lesions (OR=3.65, 95% CI 1.05 to 12.70, p=0.04) and participants who had: not been immobilised in a sling (OR = 0.38, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.98, p=0.05), higher levels of shoulder activity (OR=1.13, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.27, p=0.03), higher levels of pain and disability (OR=1.03, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.06, p=0.02), higher levels of fear of reinjury (OR=1.12, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.26, p=0.04) and decreased quality of life (OR=1.01, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.02, p=0.05). There was no significant difference in those with non-dominant compared with dominant shoulder dislocations (p=0.10) or in those aged 16–25 years compared with 26–40 years (p=0.07). CONCLUSION: Six of seven physical and psychosocial factors can be used to predict recurrent shoulder instability following a first-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6407568 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2019 |
publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-64075682019-03-21 Who will redislocate his/her shoulder? Predicting recurrent instability following a first traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation Olds, Margie K Ellis, Richard Parmar, Priya Kersten, Paula BMJ Open Sport Exerc Med Original Article OBJECTIVE: To develop a multivariate tool that would predict recurrent instability after a first-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation. METHODS: Participants (aged 16–40 years) were recruited across New Zealand into a prospective cohort study. Baseline data were collected during a telephone interview and through examination of radiology records. Variables associated with recurrent instability were selected for the multivariate logistic regression model using backwards selection (p<0.10). Coefficients for those variables retained in the model were used to develop the predictive tool. RESULTS: Among the 128 participants, 36% had redislocated at least once in the first 12 months. Univariate analysis showed an increased likelihood of recurrent dislocation with bony Bankart lesions (OR=3.65, 95% CI 1.05 to 12.70, p=0.04) and participants who had: not been immobilised in a sling (OR = 0.38, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.98, p=0.05), higher levels of shoulder activity (OR=1.13, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.27, p=0.03), higher levels of pain and disability (OR=1.03, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.06, p=0.02), higher levels of fear of reinjury (OR=1.12, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.26, p=0.04) and decreased quality of life (OR=1.01, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.02, p=0.05). There was no significant difference in those with non-dominant compared with dominant shoulder dislocations (p=0.10) or in those aged 16–25 years compared with 26–40 years (p=0.07). CONCLUSION: Six of seven physical and psychosocial factors can be used to predict recurrent shoulder instability following a first-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation. BMJ Publishing Group 2019-03-07 /pmc/articles/PMC6407568/ /pubmed/30899544 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjsem-2018-000447 Text en © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Original Article Olds, Margie K Ellis, Richard Parmar, Priya Kersten, Paula Who will redislocate his/her shoulder? Predicting recurrent instability following a first traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation |
title | Who will redislocate his/her shoulder? Predicting recurrent instability following a first traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation |
title_full | Who will redislocate his/her shoulder? Predicting recurrent instability following a first traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation |
title_fullStr | Who will redislocate his/her shoulder? Predicting recurrent instability following a first traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation |
title_full_unstemmed | Who will redislocate his/her shoulder? Predicting recurrent instability following a first traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation |
title_short | Who will redislocate his/her shoulder? Predicting recurrent instability following a first traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation |
title_sort | who will redislocate his/her shoulder? predicting recurrent instability following a first traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation |
topic | Original Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6407568/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30899544 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjsem-2018-000447 |
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