Role of pretreatment variables on plasma HIV RNA value at the sixth month of antiretroviral therapy including all first line drugs in HIV naïve patients: A path analysis approach

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We investigated the conditioning roles of viral tropism and other variables on plasma HIV RNA levels after 6 months of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in an HIV-infected Italian naïve population using regression tree, random forest regression, and path analysis (PA). Patients in this multicenter observational study were treated with all antiviral drugs that are currently recommended as first-line therapies. METHODS: Adult patients with chronic HIV infection were enrolled at the beginning of first-line cART (T0). The main variables were age, gender, tropism, “lcd4_0” and “lcd4_6” (log(10) CD4+counts at T0 and after 6 months of cART, respectively), and “lrna0” (log(10) HIV RNA at T0). Regression tree and random forest analyses were applied. The predictive effect on lrna6 (log(10)-transformed plasma HIV RNA after 6 months of cART) was also investigated via PA (x4->lcd4_0->lrna0->lrna6) with a treatment selection step included as a dependent (mediator) variable for each third drug and, as predictive covariates, age, female, x4_10, x4_5, lcd4_0, and lrna0. Tropism was assessed in plasma using the Geno2pheno algorithm with 2 false positive rate (FPR) cut-offs: 5% (x4_5) and 10% (x4_10). RESULTS: The study included 571 subjects (21% x4_10 and 10.7% x4_5). The only important predictor of lrna6 was lrna0, and a positive indirect effect of bearing X4 virus in plasma was suggested. A significant direct positive effect of protease inhibitors on lrna6 was found (p = 0.022), and a significant negative effect of integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) was also detected (p = 0.003 for FPR ≤ 5% and p = 0.01 for FPR < 10%). PA predicted mean residual viremias of 40 copies/mL without INSTI and 3 copies/mL with INSTI. CONCLUSIONS: PA indicated a possible indirect role of HIV tropism on lrna6 with both FPR < 10% and ≤ 5%. Patients treated with INSTI had a predicted residual viremia of 3 copies/mL.