The Changing Face of Liver Transplantation in the United States: The Effect of HCV Antiviral Eras on Transplantation Trends and Outcomes

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis is the leading indication for liver transplantation in the United States, although nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is on the rise. Increasingly effective HCV antivirals are available, but their association with diagnosis-specific liver transplantation rates and early graft survival is not known. METHODS: The Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients database records were retrospectively stratified by HCV antiviral era: interferon (2003-2010), protease inhibitors (2011-2013), and direct-acting antivirals (2014 to present). Kaplan-Meier, χ(2), and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models evaluated the effects of antiviral era and etiology of liver disease on transplantation rates and graft survival over 3 years. RESULTS: Liver transplants for HCV decreased (35.3% to 23.6%), whereas those for NASH and alcoholic liver disease increased (5.8% to 16.5% and 15.6% to 24.0%) with each advancing era (all P < 0.05). Early graft survival improved with each advancing era for HCV but not for hepatitis B virus, NASH, or alcoholic liver disease (multivariable model era by diagnosis interaction P < 0.001). Era-specific multivariable models demonstrated that the risk of early graft loss for NASH was 22% lower than for HCV in the interferon era (hazard ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.96; P = 0.02) but risks associated with these diagnoses did not differ significantly in the protease inhibitor (P = 0.06) or direct-acting antiviral eras (P = 0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing effectiveness of HCV antivirals corresponds with decreased rates of liver transplantation for HCV and improved early graft survival. As the rates of liver transplant for NASH continue to increase, focus will be needed on the prevention and effective therapies for this disease.