A model predicting the PSP toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium minutum occurrence in the coastal waters of the NW Adriatic Sea

Increased anthropic pressure on the coastal zones of the Mediterranean Sea caused an enrichment in nutrients, promoting microalgal proliferation. Among those organisms, some species, such as the dinoflagellate Alexandrium minutum, can produce neurotoxins. Toxic blooms can cause serious impacts to human health, marine environment and economic maritime activities at coastal sites. A mathematical model predicting the presence of A. minutum in coastal waters of the NW Adriatic Sea was developed using a Random Forest (RF), which is a Machine Learning technique, trained with molecular data of A. minutum occurrence obtained by molecular PCR assay. The model is able to correctly predict more than 80% of the instances in the test data set. Our results showed that predictive models may play a useful role in the study of Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB).