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Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: a social contact survey

BACKGROUND: Social contact surveys can greatly help in quantifying the heterogeneous patterns of infectious disease transmission. The present study aimed to conduct a contact survey in Japan, offering estimates of contact by age and location and validating a social contact matrix using a seroepidemi...

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Autores principales: Munasinghe, Lankeshwara, Asai, Yusuke, Nishiura, Hiroshi
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6425701/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30890153
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12976-019-0102-8
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author Munasinghe, Lankeshwara
Asai, Yusuke
Nishiura, Hiroshi
author_facet Munasinghe, Lankeshwara
Asai, Yusuke
Nishiura, Hiroshi
author_sort Munasinghe, Lankeshwara
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Social contact surveys can greatly help in quantifying the heterogeneous patterns of infectious disease transmission. The present study aimed to conduct a contact survey in Japan, offering estimates of contact by age and location and validating a social contact matrix using a seroepidemiological dataset of influenza. METHODS: An internet-based questionnaire survey was conducted, covering all 47 prefectures in Japan and including a total of 1476 households. The social contact matrix was quantified assuming reciprocity and using the maximum likelihood method. By imposing several parametric assumptions for the next-generation matrix, the empirical seroepidemiological data of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 was analysed and we estimated the basic reproduction number, R(0). RESULTS: In total, the reported number of contacts on weekdays was 10,682 whereas that on weekend days was 8867. Strong age-dependent assortativity was identified. Forty percent of weekday contacts took place at schools or workplaces, but that declined to 14% on weekends. Accounting for the age-dependent heterogeneity with the known social contact matrix, the minimum value of the Akaike information criterion was obtained and R(0) was estimated at 1.45 (95% confidence interval: 1.42, 1.49). CONCLUSIONS: Survey datasets will be useful for parameterizing the heterogeneous transmission model of various directly transmitted infectious diseases in Japan. Age-dependent assortativity, especially among children, along with numerous contacts in school settings on weekdays implies the potential effectiveness of school closure. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12976-019-0102-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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spelling pubmed-64257012019-04-01 Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: a social contact survey Munasinghe, Lankeshwara Asai, Yusuke Nishiura, Hiroshi Theor Biol Med Model Research BACKGROUND: Social contact surveys can greatly help in quantifying the heterogeneous patterns of infectious disease transmission. The present study aimed to conduct a contact survey in Japan, offering estimates of contact by age and location and validating a social contact matrix using a seroepidemiological dataset of influenza. METHODS: An internet-based questionnaire survey was conducted, covering all 47 prefectures in Japan and including a total of 1476 households. The social contact matrix was quantified assuming reciprocity and using the maximum likelihood method. By imposing several parametric assumptions for the next-generation matrix, the empirical seroepidemiological data of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 was analysed and we estimated the basic reproduction number, R(0). RESULTS: In total, the reported number of contacts on weekdays was 10,682 whereas that on weekend days was 8867. Strong age-dependent assortativity was identified. Forty percent of weekday contacts took place at schools or workplaces, but that declined to 14% on weekends. Accounting for the age-dependent heterogeneity with the known social contact matrix, the minimum value of the Akaike information criterion was obtained and R(0) was estimated at 1.45 (95% confidence interval: 1.42, 1.49). CONCLUSIONS: Survey datasets will be useful for parameterizing the heterogeneous transmission model of various directly transmitted infectious diseases in Japan. Age-dependent assortativity, especially among children, along with numerous contacts in school settings on weekdays implies the potential effectiveness of school closure. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12976-019-0102-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. BioMed Central 2019-03-20 /pmc/articles/PMC6425701/ /pubmed/30890153 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12976-019-0102-8 Text en © The Author(s). 2019 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
spellingShingle Research
Munasinghe, Lankeshwara
Asai, Yusuke
Nishiura, Hiroshi
Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: a social contact survey
title Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: a social contact survey
title_full Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: a social contact survey
title_fullStr Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: a social contact survey
title_full_unstemmed Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: a social contact survey
title_short Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: a social contact survey
title_sort quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in japan: a social contact survey
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6425701/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30890153
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12976-019-0102-8
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