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Phenology models using herbarium specimens are only slightly improved by using finer‐scale stages of reproduction

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Herbarium specimens are increasingly used to study reproductive phenology. Here, we ask whether classifying reproduction into progressively finer‐scale stages improves our understanding of the relationship between climate and reproductive phenology. METHODS: We evaluated Acer r...

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Autores principales: Ellwood, Elizabeth R., Primack, Richard B., Willis, Charles G., HilleRisLambers, Janneke
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6426165/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30937218
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/aps3.1225
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author Ellwood, Elizabeth R.
Primack, Richard B.
Willis, Charles G.
HilleRisLambers, Janneke
author_facet Ellwood, Elizabeth R.
Primack, Richard B.
Willis, Charles G.
HilleRisLambers, Janneke
author_sort Ellwood, Elizabeth R.
collection PubMed
description PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Herbarium specimens are increasingly used to study reproductive phenology. Here, we ask whether classifying reproduction into progressively finer‐scale stages improves our understanding of the relationship between climate and reproductive phenology. METHODS: We evaluated Acer rubrum herbarium specimens across eastern North America, classifying them into eight reproductive phenophases and four stages of leaf development. We fit models with different reproductive phenology categorization schemes (from detailed to broad) and compared model fits and coefficients describing temperature, elevation, and year effects. We fit similar models to leaf phenology data to compare reproductive to leafing phenology. RESULTS: Finer‐scale reproductive phenophases improved model fits and provided more precise estimates of reproductive phenology. However, models with fewer reproductive phenophases led to similar qualitative conclusions, demonstrating that A. rubrum reproduces earlier in warmer locations, lower elevations, and in recent years, as well as that leafing phenology is less strongly influenced by temperature than is reproductive phenology. DISCUSSION: Our study suggests that detailed information on reproductive phenology provides a fuller understanding of potential climate change effects on flowering, fruiting, and leaf‐out. However, classification schemes with fewer reproductive phenophases provided many similar insights and may be preferable in cases where resources are limited.
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spelling pubmed-64261652019-04-01 Phenology models using herbarium specimens are only slightly improved by using finer‐scale stages of reproduction Ellwood, Elizabeth R. Primack, Richard B. Willis, Charles G. HilleRisLambers, Janneke Appl Plant Sci Application Articles PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Herbarium specimens are increasingly used to study reproductive phenology. Here, we ask whether classifying reproduction into progressively finer‐scale stages improves our understanding of the relationship between climate and reproductive phenology. METHODS: We evaluated Acer rubrum herbarium specimens across eastern North America, classifying them into eight reproductive phenophases and four stages of leaf development. We fit models with different reproductive phenology categorization schemes (from detailed to broad) and compared model fits and coefficients describing temperature, elevation, and year effects. We fit similar models to leaf phenology data to compare reproductive to leafing phenology. RESULTS: Finer‐scale reproductive phenophases improved model fits and provided more precise estimates of reproductive phenology. However, models with fewer reproductive phenophases led to similar qualitative conclusions, demonstrating that A. rubrum reproduces earlier in warmer locations, lower elevations, and in recent years, as well as that leafing phenology is less strongly influenced by temperature than is reproductive phenology. DISCUSSION: Our study suggests that detailed information on reproductive phenology provides a fuller understanding of potential climate change effects on flowering, fruiting, and leaf‐out. However, classification schemes with fewer reproductive phenophases provided many similar insights and may be preferable in cases where resources are limited. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2019-03-07 /pmc/articles/PMC6426165/ /pubmed/30937218 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/aps3.1225 Text en © 2019 Ellwood et al. Applications in Plant Sciences is published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the Botanical Society of America This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
spellingShingle Application Articles
Ellwood, Elizabeth R.
Primack, Richard B.
Willis, Charles G.
HilleRisLambers, Janneke
Phenology models using herbarium specimens are only slightly improved by using finer‐scale stages of reproduction
title Phenology models using herbarium specimens are only slightly improved by using finer‐scale stages of reproduction
title_full Phenology models using herbarium specimens are only slightly improved by using finer‐scale stages of reproduction
title_fullStr Phenology models using herbarium specimens are only slightly improved by using finer‐scale stages of reproduction
title_full_unstemmed Phenology models using herbarium specimens are only slightly improved by using finer‐scale stages of reproduction
title_short Phenology models using herbarium specimens are only slightly improved by using finer‐scale stages of reproduction
title_sort phenology models using herbarium specimens are only slightly improved by using finer‐scale stages of reproduction
topic Application Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6426165/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30937218
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/aps3.1225
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