Rapidly Spreading Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic Among Older Males and Associated Factors: A Large-scale Prospective Cohort Study in Rural Southwest China

BACKGROUND: Increasing risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) heterosexual transmission can raise the potential for a more diffuse and generalized epidemic. In response to the paucity of data on HIV incidence among heterosexuals in China, we conducted a large-scale, population-based cohort study located in rural southwest China. METHODS: Baseline enrollment for the study was conducted from 2013 to 2014 and follow-up at 12 months was from 2014 to 2015 among adults 20 years or older in 3 rural counties of Southwest China. Study participants were informed of the study by brochures and leaflets distributed in outreach activities. Interviews and blood collection were conducted in private rooms. Blood samples were tested for HIV infection. RESULTS: The HIV prevalence of the sample was 0.29% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.27–0.30) (2063 of 722,795) among the total adult population of 1,090,296 potential participants 20 years or older at baseline. Of the 720,732 individuals who tested HIV-negative at baseline, 493,990 (69%) completed the follow-up. Overall HIV incidence was 2.73 (95% CI, 2.38–3.08) per 10,000 person-years (PY) (235 of 860,627 PY). Human immunodeficiency virus incidence was associated with males, older age, less than secondary schooling and not currently being married. Human immunodeficiency virus incidence was 71.28 (95% CI, 35.21–107.35) per 10,000 PY among males aged 50 to 69 years who had less than secondary schooling and were divorced or widowed. Heterosexual sex was the dominant transmission mode for HIV seroconversions (99.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Older heterosexual males were at disproportionate risk of HIV infection. Health authorities in China need to develop and implement innovative interventions suitable for the broader population of older heterosexuals.