Left ventricular concentric geometry predicts incident diabetes mellitus independent of established risk factors in the general population: the Copenhagen City Heart Study

BACKGROUND: Subtle impairments in left ventricular (LV) function and geometry are common findings in individuals with diabetes. However, whether these impairments precede the development of diabetes mellitus (DM) is not entirely clear. METHODS: Echocardiograms from 1710 individuals from the general population free of prevalent diabetes mellitus were analyzed. Left ventricular (LV) concentric geometry was defined as either LV concentric remodeling or LV concentric hypertrophy as directed in contemporary guidelines. The severity of LV concentricity was assessed by relative wall thickness (RWT) calculated as posterior wall thickness (PWT) indexed to left ventricular internal diameter at end diastole (LVIDd) (RWT = 2 * PWT/LVIDd). End-point was incident DM. RESULTS: Median follow-up time was 12.6 years (IQR: 12.0–12.8 years). Follow-up was a 100%. A total of 55 participants (3.3%) developed DM during follow-up. At baseline, the prevalence of a concentric LV geometric pattern was significantly higher (41.8% vs 20.3%, p < 0.001) in individuals who developed DM during follow-up. In a final multivariable model adjusting for established DM risk factors including HbA1c, BMI and plasma glucose, LV concentric geometry and RWT remained significantly associated with incident DM (LV concentric geometry: HR 1.99, 95% CI 1.11–3.57, p = 0.021) (RWT: HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.06–1.86, p = 0.017, per 0.1 increase). This association remained despite adjustment for established risk factors for DM. CONCLUSION: Altered LV geometry may precede the development of DM. LV concentric geometry determined by echocardiography and the severity of LV concentricity evaluated as RWT are associated with incident DM in the general population. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12933-019-0842-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.