Quantitative CT analysis of honeycombing area predicts mortality in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis with definite usual interstitial pneumonia pattern: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Honeycombing on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) images is a key finding in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). In IPF, honeycombing area determined by quantitative CT analysis is correlated with pulmonary function test findings. We hypothesized that quantitative CT-derived honeycombing area (HA) might predict mortality in patients with IPF. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Chest HRCT images of 52 IPF patients with definite usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) pattern were retrospectively evaluated. Mortality data up to July 31, 2016, were recorded. Using a computer-aided system, HA and percentage of HA (%HA) were measured quantitatively. Predictors of 3-year mortality were evaluated using logistic regression models. RESULTS: The median %HA, %predicted forced vital capacity (FVC) and composite physiologic index (CPI) were 3.8%, 83.6%, and 33.6, respectively. According to GAP (gender, age, and physiology) stage, 20, 14, and 5 patients were classified under stages I-II-III, respectively. Percentage of HA was significantly correlated with %FVC, CPI, and GAP stage (all, p < 0.001). In univariate analysis, %HA, %FVC, and CPI were statistically significant predictors of mortality. In multivariate analysis using the stepwise regression method, only %HA (odds ratio [OR], 1.27; p = 0.011) was a significant independent predictors of mortality. Patients with %HA ≥ 4.8% had significantly lower survival rates than those with lesser %HA (median survival time, 1.3 vs 5.0 years; log-rank test; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Quantitative CT-derived HA might be an important and independent predictor of mortality in IPF patients with definite UIP pattern.