Survival rate of HIV-infected children after initiation of the antiretroviral therapy and its predictors in Ethiopia: A facility-based retrospective cohort

OBJECTIVE: To determine the survival rate and predictors of HIV-infected children on antiretroviral therapy at two selected facilities in North Ethiopia. METHODS: A facility-based retrospective cohort study was conducted in Debre Tabor General Hospital and Dessie Referral Hospital from December 2005 to November 2015. A total of 426 records were included in the study. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify independent predictors of survival. RESULTS: At the end of follow-up, 97 (22.9%) HIV-infected children died and 325 (77.1%) were alive. The probabilities of survival at 12, 24, 36 and 48 months of on antiretroviral therapy were 0.91, 0.85, 0.84 and 0.80, respectively. The median survival time was 91.6 months (95% confidence interval: 89.0–94.2). Almost half (51%) of the deaths occurred within the first 2 years of treatment. Study participants who had poor adherence to antiretroviral therapy (adjusted hazard ratio = 3.0; 95% confidence interval: 1.2–7.5) and who started antiretroviral therapy with lower baseline weight-for-age Z-score (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.1–6.1) were significantly associated with high risk of mortality. On the other hand, study participants with a baseline CD4 count above 200 cells/mm(3) (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.7; 95% confidence interval: 0.4–0.9) and those participants who had psychosocial support during follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.03; 95% confidence interval: 0.1–0.7) were significantly associated with less mortality event. CONCLUSION: Mortality of children on antiretroviral therapy was high. The risk of mortality is increased if the child was underweight at the commencement of antiretroviral therapy, had lower baseline CD4 count, had poor adherence to antiretroviral therapy and had no psychosocial support. Concerned stakeholders should focus on antiretroviral therapy adherence, nutritional interventions, psychological support and early initiation of antiretroviral therapy regardless of their CD4 count to enhance survival of HIV-infected children on antiretroviral therapy.