Multiple Aneurysms AnaTomy CHallenge 2018 (MATCH): uncertainty quantification of geometric rupture risk parameters

BACKGROUND: Geometric parameters have been proposed for prediction of cerebral aneurysm rupture risk. Predicting the rupture risk for incidentally detected unruptured aneurysms could help clinicians in their treatment decision. However, assessment of geometric parameters depends on several factors, including the spatial resolution of the imaging modality used and the chosen reconstruction procedure. The aim of this study was to investigate the uncertainty of a variety of previously proposed geometric parameters for rupture risk assessment, caused by variability of reconstruction procedures. MATERIALS: 26 research groups provided segmentations and surface reconstructions of five cerebral aneurysms as part of the Multiple Aneurysms AnaTomy CHallenge (MATCH) 2018. 40 dimensional and non-dimensional geometric parameters, describing aneurysm size, neck size, and irregularity of aneurysm shape, were computed. The medians as well as the absolute and relative uncertainties of the parameters were calculated. Additionally, linear regression analysis was performed on the absolute uncertainties and the median parameter values. RESULTS: A large variability of relative uncertainties in the range between 3.9 and 179.8% was found. Linear regression analysis indicates that some parameters capture similar geometric aspects. The lowest uncertainties < 6% were found for the non-dimensional parameters isoperimetric ratio, convexity ratio, and ellipticity index. Uncertainty of 2D and 3D size parameters was significantly higher than uncertainty of 1D parameters. The most extreme uncertainties > 80% were found for some curvature parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Uncertainty analysis is essential on the road to clinical translation and use of rupture risk prediction models. Uncertainty quantification of geometric rupture risk parameters provided by this study may help support development of future rupture risk prediction models. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12938-019-0657-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.