Dynamic and diverse amphibian assemblages: Can we differentiate natural processes from human induced changes?

Amphibians are sensitive to anthropogenic habitat alterations but also respond to natural drivers of assemblage composition at many levels. Additionally, they are usually hard to detect in field inventories. We used a multiscale approach, from microhabitat to the landscape levels, to try to understand the effects of natural changes, and try to distinguish them from the effects of landscape level anthropogenic changes, on dynamic and diverse anuran assemblages, taking imperfect detection into account. We conducted thorough field inventories in 16 streams at Serra do Cipó, in the southern portion of Espinhaço Mountain Range, southeastern Brazil, during two time periods separated by 16 years. We compared species richness and diversity between periods, sampling both tadpoles and adult frogs. We quantified tadpole microhabitat availability, alterations in immediate riparian vegetation, and changes in classes of land cover within buffers around streams (adult habitats) to test for their effects on species composition. We also tested for effects of human occupancy around streams on nestedness and turnover components of species diversity. Microhabitats and riparian vegetation explained some of the changes in species composition (or detection) between time periods. Nestedness seemed to be influenced by the stability of the landscape. Detectabilities were too low to support robust occupancy estimates for most species. Natural changes in local habitats occupied by anurans in montane meadows are likely to influence species distribution. Some species with robust estimates experienced change in their occupancy over the studied 16-year interval, although no anthropogenic causes could be directly associated with such changes. The low detectability of most species, even with thorough sampling effort, makes it very hard to detect amphibian declines and possibly tell them apart from natural population fluctuations. New techniques are needed that improve species detectability in such diverse tropical habitats.