Cargando…

Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change

Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses—especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika—is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature,...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Ryan, Sadie J., Carlson, Colin J., Mordecai, Erin A., Johnson, Leah R.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6438455/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30921321
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007213
_version_ 1783407100062334976
author Ryan, Sadie J.
Carlson, Colin J.
Mordecai, Erin A.
Johnson, Leah R.
author_facet Ryan, Sadie J.
Carlson, Colin J.
Mordecai, Erin A.
Johnson, Leah R.
author_sort Ryan, Sadie J.
collection PubMed
description Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses—especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika—is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3–34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9–29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-6438455
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2019
publisher Public Library of Science
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-64384552019-04-12 Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change Ryan, Sadie J. Carlson, Colin J. Mordecai, Erin A. Johnson, Leah R. PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses—especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika—is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3–34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9–29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios. Public Library of Science 2019-03-28 /pmc/articles/PMC6438455/ /pubmed/30921321 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007213 Text en © 2019 Ryan et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Ryan, Sadie J.
Carlson, Colin J.
Mordecai, Erin A.
Johnson, Leah R.
Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change
title Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change
title_full Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change
title_fullStr Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change
title_full_unstemmed Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change
title_short Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change
title_sort global expansion and redistribution of aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6438455/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30921321
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007213
work_keys_str_mv AT ryansadiej globalexpansionandredistributionofaedesbornevirustransmissionriskwithclimatechange
AT carlsoncolinj globalexpansionandredistributionofaedesbornevirustransmissionriskwithclimatechange
AT mordecaierina globalexpansionandredistributionofaedesbornevirustransmissionriskwithclimatechange
AT johnsonleahr globalexpansionandredistributionofaedesbornevirustransmissionriskwithclimatechange