Pre-transplant histology does not improve prediction of 5-year kidney allograft outcomes above and beyond clinical parameters

Pre-implant kidney biopsy is used to determine suitability of marginal donor kidneys for transplantation. However, there is limited data examining the utility of pre-implant histology in predicting medium term graft outcome. This retrospective study examined kidney transplants over a 10-year period at a single center to determine if pre-implant histology can identify cases of eGFR ≤35 ml/min/1.73m(2) at 5 year follow up beyond a clinical predictive logistic regression model. We also compared outcomes of dual kidney transplants with standard single kidney transplants. Of 1195 transplants, 171 received a pre-implant kidney biopsy and 15 were dual transplants. There was no significant difference in graft and patient survival rates. Median eGFR was lower in recipients of biopsied kidneys compared with standard kidney transplants (44 vs. 54 ml/min/1.73m(2), p < .001). Median eGFR of dual transplant and standard kidney transplants were similar (58 vs. 54 ml/min/1.73m(2), p = .64). Glomerular sclerosis (p = .05) and Karpinski Score (p = .03) were significant predictors of eGFR at 5-years in multivariate analysis but did not improve discrimination of eGFR ≤35 ml/min/1.73m(2) at 5-years beyond a clinical prediction model comprising donor age, donor hypertension and terminal donor creatinine (C-statistic 0.67 vs. 0.66; p = .647). Pre-implant histology did not improve prediction of medium-term graft outcomes beyond clinical predictors alone. Allograft function of dual transplant kidneys was similar to standard transplants, suggesting that there is scope to increase utilization of kidneys considered marginal based on histology.