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Estimating the potential impact of the UK government’s sugar reduction programme on child and adult health: modelling study

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact of the UK government’s sugar reduction programme on child and adult obesity, adult disease burden, and healthcare costs. DESIGN: Modelling study. SETTING: Simulated scenario based on National Diet and Nutrition Survey waves 5 and 6, England. PARTICIPANTS: 1508 surve...

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Autores principales: Amies-Cull, Ben, Briggs, Adam D M, Scarborough, Peter
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6468887/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30996021
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l1417
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author Amies-Cull, Ben
Briggs, Adam D M
Scarborough, Peter
author_facet Amies-Cull, Ben
Briggs, Adam D M
Scarborough, Peter
author_sort Amies-Cull, Ben
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact of the UK government’s sugar reduction programme on child and adult obesity, adult disease burden, and healthcare costs. DESIGN: Modelling study. SETTING: Simulated scenario based on National Diet and Nutrition Survey waves 5 and 6, England. PARTICIPANTS: 1508 survey respondents were used to model weight change among the population of England aged 4-80 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Calorie change, weight change, and body mass index change were estimated for children and adults. Impact on non-communicable disease incidence, quality adjusted life years, and healthcare costs were estimated for adults. Changes to disease burden were modelled with the PRIMEtime-CE Model, based on the 2014 population in England aged 18-80. RESULTS: If the sugar reduction programme was achieved in its entirety and resulted in the planned sugar reduction, then the calorie reduction was estimated to be 25 kcal/day (1 kcal=4.18 kJ=0.00418 MJ) for 4-10 year olds (95% confidence interval 23 to 26), 25 kcal/day (24 to 28) for 11-18 year olds, and 19 kcal/day (17 to 20) for adults. The reduction in obesity could represent 5.5% of the baseline obese population of 4-10 year olds, 2.2% of obese 11-18 year olds, and 5.5% of obese 19-80 year olds. A modelled 51 729 quality adjusted life years (95% uncertainty interval 45 768 to 57 242) were saved over 10 years, including 154 550 (132 623 to 174 604) cases of diabetes and relating to a net healthcare saving of £285.8m (€332.5m, $373.5m; £249.7m to £319.8m). CONCLUSIONS: The UK government’s sugar reduction programme could reduce the burden of obesity and obesity related disease, provided that reductions in sugar levels and portion sizes do not prompt unanticipated changes in eating patterns or product formulation.
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spelling pubmed-64688872019-05-03 Estimating the potential impact of the UK government’s sugar reduction programme on child and adult health: modelling study Amies-Cull, Ben Briggs, Adam D M Scarborough, Peter BMJ Research OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact of the UK government’s sugar reduction programme on child and adult obesity, adult disease burden, and healthcare costs. DESIGN: Modelling study. SETTING: Simulated scenario based on National Diet and Nutrition Survey waves 5 and 6, England. PARTICIPANTS: 1508 survey respondents were used to model weight change among the population of England aged 4-80 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Calorie change, weight change, and body mass index change were estimated for children and adults. Impact on non-communicable disease incidence, quality adjusted life years, and healthcare costs were estimated for adults. Changes to disease burden were modelled with the PRIMEtime-CE Model, based on the 2014 population in England aged 18-80. RESULTS: If the sugar reduction programme was achieved in its entirety and resulted in the planned sugar reduction, then the calorie reduction was estimated to be 25 kcal/day (1 kcal=4.18 kJ=0.00418 MJ) for 4-10 year olds (95% confidence interval 23 to 26), 25 kcal/day (24 to 28) for 11-18 year olds, and 19 kcal/day (17 to 20) for adults. The reduction in obesity could represent 5.5% of the baseline obese population of 4-10 year olds, 2.2% of obese 11-18 year olds, and 5.5% of obese 19-80 year olds. A modelled 51 729 quality adjusted life years (95% uncertainty interval 45 768 to 57 242) were saved over 10 years, including 154 550 (132 623 to 174 604) cases of diabetes and relating to a net healthcare saving of £285.8m (€332.5m, $373.5m; £249.7m to £319.8m). CONCLUSIONS: The UK government’s sugar reduction programme could reduce the burden of obesity and obesity related disease, provided that reductions in sugar levels and portion sizes do not prompt unanticipated changes in eating patterns or product formulation. BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. 2019-04-17 /pmc/articles/PMC6468887/ /pubmed/30996021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l1417 Text en Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt and build upon this work, for commercial use, provided the original work is properly cited. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Research
Amies-Cull, Ben
Briggs, Adam D M
Scarborough, Peter
Estimating the potential impact of the UK government’s sugar reduction programme on child and adult health: modelling study
title Estimating the potential impact of the UK government’s sugar reduction programme on child and adult health: modelling study
title_full Estimating the potential impact of the UK government’s sugar reduction programme on child and adult health: modelling study
title_fullStr Estimating the potential impact of the UK government’s sugar reduction programme on child and adult health: modelling study
title_full_unstemmed Estimating the potential impact of the UK government’s sugar reduction programme on child and adult health: modelling study
title_short Estimating the potential impact of the UK government’s sugar reduction programme on child and adult health: modelling study
title_sort estimating the potential impact of the uk government’s sugar reduction programme on child and adult health: modelling study
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6468887/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30996021
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l1417
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