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Lifetime Estimation for Multi-Phase Deteriorating Process with Random Abrupt Jumps †

Owing to operating condition changing, physical mutation, and sudden shocks, degradation trajectories usually exhibit multi-phase features, and the abrupt jump often appears at the changing time, which makes the traditional methods of lifetime estimation unavailable. In this paper, we mainly focus o...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Zhang, Jianxun, Si, Xiaosheng, Du, Dangbo, Hu, Chen, Hu, Changhua
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6471474/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30917549
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s19061472
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author Zhang, Jianxun
Si, Xiaosheng
Du, Dangbo
Hu, Chen
Hu, Changhua
author_facet Zhang, Jianxun
Si, Xiaosheng
Du, Dangbo
Hu, Chen
Hu, Changhua
author_sort Zhang, Jianxun
collection PubMed
description Owing to operating condition changing, physical mutation, and sudden shocks, degradation trajectories usually exhibit multi-phase features, and the abrupt jump often appears at the changing time, which makes the traditional methods of lifetime estimation unavailable. In this paper, we mainly focus on how to estimate the lifetime of the multi-phase degradation process with abrupt jumps at the change points under the concept of the first passage time (FPT). Firstly, a multi-phase degradation model with jumps based on the Wiener process is formulated to describe the multi-phase degradation pattern. Then, we attain the lifetime’s closed-form expression for the two-phase model with fixed jump relying on the distribution of the degradation state at the change point. Furthermore, we continue to investigate the lifetime estimation of the degradation process with random effect caused by unit-to-unit variability and the multi-phase degradation process. We extend the results of the two-phase case with fixed parameters to these two cases. For better implementation, a model identification method with off-line and on-line parts based on Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm and Bayesian rule is proposed. Finally, a numerical case study and a practical example of gyro are provided for illustration.
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spelling pubmed-64714742019-04-26 Lifetime Estimation for Multi-Phase Deteriorating Process with Random Abrupt Jumps † Zhang, Jianxun Si, Xiaosheng Du, Dangbo Hu, Chen Hu, Changhua Sensors (Basel) Article Owing to operating condition changing, physical mutation, and sudden shocks, degradation trajectories usually exhibit multi-phase features, and the abrupt jump often appears at the changing time, which makes the traditional methods of lifetime estimation unavailable. In this paper, we mainly focus on how to estimate the lifetime of the multi-phase degradation process with abrupt jumps at the change points under the concept of the first passage time (FPT). Firstly, a multi-phase degradation model with jumps based on the Wiener process is formulated to describe the multi-phase degradation pattern. Then, we attain the lifetime’s closed-form expression for the two-phase model with fixed jump relying on the distribution of the degradation state at the change point. Furthermore, we continue to investigate the lifetime estimation of the degradation process with random effect caused by unit-to-unit variability and the multi-phase degradation process. We extend the results of the two-phase case with fixed parameters to these two cases. For better implementation, a model identification method with off-line and on-line parts based on Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm and Bayesian rule is proposed. Finally, a numerical case study and a practical example of gyro are provided for illustration. MDPI 2019-03-26 /pmc/articles/PMC6471474/ /pubmed/30917549 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s19061472 Text en © 2019 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Zhang, Jianxun
Si, Xiaosheng
Du, Dangbo
Hu, Chen
Hu, Changhua
Lifetime Estimation for Multi-Phase Deteriorating Process with Random Abrupt Jumps †
title Lifetime Estimation for Multi-Phase Deteriorating Process with Random Abrupt Jumps †
title_full Lifetime Estimation for Multi-Phase Deteriorating Process with Random Abrupt Jumps †
title_fullStr Lifetime Estimation for Multi-Phase Deteriorating Process with Random Abrupt Jumps †
title_full_unstemmed Lifetime Estimation for Multi-Phase Deteriorating Process with Random Abrupt Jumps †
title_short Lifetime Estimation for Multi-Phase Deteriorating Process with Random Abrupt Jumps †
title_sort lifetime estimation for multi-phase deteriorating process with random abrupt jumps †
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6471474/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30917549
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s19061472
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