Association of resting heart rate and its change with incident cardiovascular events in the middle-aged and older Chinese

Whether heart rate change is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population is unclear. We conducted a prospective cohort study to assess the association of resting heart rate and its change with incident CVD in the middle-aged and older Chinese. Resting heart rate was measured during the baseline survey (September 2008 to June 2010) and the resurvey (2013). Incident CVD was followed up until December 31, 2016. Finally, a total of 20,828 participants were included in the analyses of baseline heart rate and 9132 participants were included in the analyses of heart rate change. The associations of baseline heart rate and heart rate change with incident CVD were assessed with multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Compared with moderate baseline heart rate (65 to 80 bpm), low baseline heart rate (<65 bpm) was associated with higher risk of CVD (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.07–1.32). Compared with stable heart rate (−5 to 15 bpm) in the moderate baseline heart rate group (65 to 80 bpm), an increase of heart rate (>15 bpm) in high baseline heart rate group (>80 bpm) (HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.02–2.71) or a decrease of heart rate (<−5 bpm) in low baseline heart rate group (<65 bpm) (HR, 2.48; 95% CI, 1.27–4.82) was associated with higher risk of CVD. In conclusion, low resting heart rate is associated with higher risk of CVD. Both continuous increase in high baseline heart rate and decrease in low baseline heart rate are associated with higher risk of CVD.