Pretreatment MRI radiomics analysis allows for reliable prediction of local recurrence in non-metastatic T4 nasopharyngeal carcinoma

BACKGROUND: To identify a radiomics signature to predict local recurrence in patients with non-metastatic T4 nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). METHODS: A total of 737 patients from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (training cohort: n = 360; internal validation cohort: n = 120) and Wuzhou Red Cross Hospital (external validation cohort: n = 257) underwent feature extraction from the largest axial area of the tumor on pretreatment magnetic resonance imaging scans. Feature selection was based on the prognostic performance and feature stability in the training cohort. Radscores were generated using the Cox proportional hazards regression model with the selected features in the training cohort and then validated in the internal and external validation cohorts. We also constructed a nomogram for predicting local recurrence-free survival (LRFS). FINDINGS: Eleven features were selected to construct the Radscore, which was significantly associated with LRFS. For the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, the Radscore (C-index: 0.741 vs. 0.753 vs. 0.730) outperformed clinical prognostic variables (C-index for primary gross tumor volume: 0.665 vs. 0.672 vs. 0.577; C-index for age: 0.571 vs. 0.629 vs. 0.605) in predicting LRFS. The generated radiomics nomogram, which integrated the Radscore and clinical variables, exhibited a satisfactory prediction performance (C-index: 0.810 vs. 0.807 vs. 0.753). The nomogram-defined high-risk group had a shorter LRFS than did the low-risk group (5-year LRFS: 73.6% vs. 95.3%, P < .001; 79.6% vs 95.8%, P = .006; 85.7% vs 96.7%, P = .005). INTERPRETATION: The Radscore can reliably predict LRFS in patients with non-metastatic T4 NPC, which might guide individual treatment decisions. FUND: This study was funded by the Health & Medical Collaborative Innovation Project of Guangzhou City, China.