Development and validation of a TP53-associated immune prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND: TP53 mutation is the most common mutation in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and it affects the progression and prognosis of HCC. We investigated how TP53 mutation regulates the HCC immunophenotype and thus affects the prognosis of HCC. METHODS: We investigated TP53 mutation status and RNA expression in different populations and platforms and developed an immune prognostic model (IPM) based on immune-related genes that were differentially expressed between TP53(WT) and TP53(MUT) HCC samples. Then, the influence of the IPM on the immune microenvironment in HCC was comprehensively analysed. FINDINGS: TP53 mutation resulted in the downregulation of the immune response in HCC. Thirty-seven of the 312 immune response-related genes were differentially expressed based on TP53 mutation status. An IPM was established and validated based on 865 patients with HCC to differentiate patients with a low or high risk of poor survival. A nomogram was also established for clinical application. Functional enrichment analysis showed that the humoral immune response and immune system diseases pathway represented the major function and pathway, respectively, related to the IPM genes. Moreover, we found that the patients in the high-risk group had higher fractions of T cells follicular helper, T cells regulatory (Tregs) and macrophages M0 and presented higher expression of CTLA-4, PD-1 and TIM-3 than the low-risk group. INTERPRETATION: TP53 mutation is strongly related to the immune microenvironment in HCC. Our IPM, which is sensitive to TP53 mutation status, may have important implications for identifying subgroups of HCC patients with low or high risk of unfavourable survival. FUND: This work was supported by the International Science and Technology Cooperation Projects (2016YFE0107100), the Capital Special Research Project for Health Development (2014-2-4012), the Beijing Natural Science Foundation (L172055 and 7192158), the National Ten Thousand Talent Program, the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (3332018032), and the CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Science (CIFMS) (2017-I2M-4-003 and 2018-I2M-3-001).