Body mass index trajectories from adolescent to young adult for incident high blood pressure and high plasma glucose

OBJECTIVES: To explore the association between sex-specific adiposity trajectories among Adolescents to early adulthood with incident high blood pressure (HBP) and high plasma glucose (HPG). METHODS: We studied body mass index (BMI) trajectories among1159 (male = 517) and 664 (male = 263) Iranian adolescents, aged 12–20 years, for incident HPG and HBP, respectively. Latent Class Growth Mixture Modeling (LCGMM) on longitudinal data was used to determine sex-specific and distinct BMI trajectories. Logistic regressions were applied to estimate the relationship between latent class membership with HBP and HPG, considering normal trajectory as the reference. RESULTS: For both HBP and HPG, LCGMM determined two and three distinct BMI trajectories in males and females, respectively. During a follow-up of 12Years 104 (male = 62) and 111(male = 59) cases of HPG and HBP were found, respectively. Among females, faster BMI increases (i.e. overweight to early obese trajectory) but not overweight (i.e. those with BMI = 27.3 kg/m(2) at baseline) trajectories increased the risk of HPG by adjusted odds ratios (ORs), 2.74 (1.10–5.80) and 0.79 (0.22–2.82), respectively; regarding HBP, the corresponding value for overweight to late obese trajectory was 3.72 (1.37–11.02). Among males, for HBP, the overweight trajectory increased the risk [2.09 (1.04–4.03)]; however, for incident HPG, none of the trajectories showed significant risk. CONCLUSIONS: Among females, trend of increasing BMI parallel with age can be a better predictor for risk of developing HPG and HBP than those with higher BMI at baseline.