Time-dependent prediction of arrhythmia recurrences during long-term follow-up in patients undergoing catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation: The Leipzig Heart Center AF Ablation Registry

The prediction of arrhythmia recurrences after catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) remains challenging. The aim of current analysis was to investigate the time-dependent prediction of arrhythmia recurrences after AF catheter ablation during long-term follow-up. The study included 879 patients (61 ± 10 years; 64% males; 39% persistent AF) undergoing first AF catheter ablation. Rhythm outcomes were documented using 7-days Holter monitoring. The APPLE score (Age, Persistent AF, imPaired eGFR, Left atrium (LA), EF) was calculated at baseline, while MB-LATER score (Male gender, Bundle branch block, LA, AF Type, Early Recurrences) 3 months after ablation. The median follow-up time was 37 months [95%CI 35;39]. ERAF and LRAF occurred in 45% and 64%, respectively. On multivariable analysis, ERAF (HR 2.095, 95%CI 1.762–2.490, p < 0.001) was strongly associated with LRAF. The APPLE (HR 1.385, 95%CI 1.276–1.505, p < 0.001) and MB-LATER (HR 1.326, 95%CI 1.239–1.419, p < 0.001) scores significantly predicted LRAF during follow-up. On the ROC analysis, APPLE (AUC 0.640, 95%CI 0.602–0.677, p < 0.001) and MB-LATER (AUC 0.654, 95%CI 0.616–0.691, p < 0.001) demonstrated moderate prediction. Summarizing, ERAF was the strongest predictor for LRAF in time-dependent manner. The APPLE and MB-LATER scores demonstrated moderate prediction of arrhythmia recurrences during long term follow-up.