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Understanding the survival of Zika virus in a vector interconnected sexual contact network
The recent outbreaks of the insect-vectored Zika virus have demonstrated its potential to be sexually transmitted, which complicates modeling and our understanding of disease dynamics. Autochthonous outbreaks in the US mainland may be a consequence of both modes of transmission, which affect the out...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2019
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6510745/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31076660 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-43651-3 |
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author | Ferdousi, Tanvir Cohnstaedt, Lee W. McVey, D. S. Scoglio, Caterina M. |
author_facet | Ferdousi, Tanvir Cohnstaedt, Lee W. McVey, D. S. Scoglio, Caterina M. |
author_sort | Ferdousi, Tanvir |
collection | PubMed |
description | The recent outbreaks of the insect-vectored Zika virus have demonstrated its potential to be sexually transmitted, which complicates modeling and our understanding of disease dynamics. Autochthonous outbreaks in the US mainland may be a consequence of both modes of transmission, which affect the outbreak size, duration, and virus persistence. We propose a novel individual-based interconnected network model that incorporates both insect-vectored and sexual transmission of this pathogen. This model interconnects a homogeneous mosquito vector population with a heterogeneous human host contact network. The model incorporates the seasonal variation of mosquito abundance and characterizes host dynamics based on age group and gender in order to produce realistic projections. We use a sexual contact network which is generated on the basis of real world sexual behavior data. Our findings suggest that for a high relative transmissibility of asymptomatic hosts, Zika virus shows a high probability of sustaining in the human population for up to 3 months without the presence of mosquito vectors. Zika outbreaks are strongly affected by the large proportion of asymptomatic individuals and their relative transmissibility. The outbreak size is also affected by the time of the year when the pathogen is introduced. Although sexual transmission has a relatively low contribution in determining the epidemic size, it plays a role in sustaining the epidemic and creating potential endemic scenarios. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6510745 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2019 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-65107452019-05-23 Understanding the survival of Zika virus in a vector interconnected sexual contact network Ferdousi, Tanvir Cohnstaedt, Lee W. McVey, D. S. Scoglio, Caterina M. Sci Rep Article The recent outbreaks of the insect-vectored Zika virus have demonstrated its potential to be sexually transmitted, which complicates modeling and our understanding of disease dynamics. Autochthonous outbreaks in the US mainland may be a consequence of both modes of transmission, which affect the outbreak size, duration, and virus persistence. We propose a novel individual-based interconnected network model that incorporates both insect-vectored and sexual transmission of this pathogen. This model interconnects a homogeneous mosquito vector population with a heterogeneous human host contact network. The model incorporates the seasonal variation of mosquito abundance and characterizes host dynamics based on age group and gender in order to produce realistic projections. We use a sexual contact network which is generated on the basis of real world sexual behavior data. Our findings suggest that for a high relative transmissibility of asymptomatic hosts, Zika virus shows a high probability of sustaining in the human population for up to 3 months without the presence of mosquito vectors. Zika outbreaks are strongly affected by the large proportion of asymptomatic individuals and their relative transmissibility. The outbreak size is also affected by the time of the year when the pathogen is introduced. Although sexual transmission has a relatively low contribution in determining the epidemic size, it plays a role in sustaining the epidemic and creating potential endemic scenarios. Nature Publishing Group UK 2019-05-10 /pmc/articles/PMC6510745/ /pubmed/31076660 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-43651-3 Text en © The Author(s) 2019 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Ferdousi, Tanvir Cohnstaedt, Lee W. McVey, D. S. Scoglio, Caterina M. Understanding the survival of Zika virus in a vector interconnected sexual contact network |
title | Understanding the survival of Zika virus in a vector interconnected sexual contact network |
title_full | Understanding the survival of Zika virus in a vector interconnected sexual contact network |
title_fullStr | Understanding the survival of Zika virus in a vector interconnected sexual contact network |
title_full_unstemmed | Understanding the survival of Zika virus in a vector interconnected sexual contact network |
title_short | Understanding the survival of Zika virus in a vector interconnected sexual contact network |
title_sort | understanding the survival of zika virus in a vector interconnected sexual contact network |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6510745/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31076660 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-43651-3 |
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