Human Rhinovirus Infections in Hematopoietic Cell Transplant Recipients: Risk Score for Progression to Lower Respiratory Tract Infection

Human rhinovirus lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) is associated with mortality after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT); however, risk factors for LRTI are not well characterized. We sought to develop a risk score for progression to LRTI from upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) in HCT recipients. Risk factors for LRTI within 90 days were analyzed using Cox regression among HCT recipients with rhinovirus URTI between January 2009 and March 2016. The final multivariable model included factors with a meaningful effect on the bootstrapped optimism corrected concordance statistic. Weighted score contributions based on hazard ratios were determined. Cumulative incidence curves estimated the probability of LRTI at various score cut-offs. Of 588 rhinovirus URTI events, 100 (17%) progressed to LRTI. In a final multivariable model allogeneic grafts, prior rhinovirus URTI, low lymphocyte count, low albumin, positive cytomegalovirus serostatus, recipient statin use, and steroid use ≥2 mg/kg/day were associated with progression to LRTI. A weighted risk score cut-off with the highest sensitivity and specificity was determined. Risk scores above this cut-off were associated with progression to LRTI (cumulative incidence 28% versus 11% below cut-off; P < .001). The weighted risk score for progression to rhinovirus LRTI can help identify and stratify patients for clinical management and for future clinical trials of therapeutics in HCT recipients.