A Bayesian multivariate latent t-regression model for assessing the association between corticosteroid and cranial radiation exposures and cardiometabolic complications in survivors of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia: a PETALE study

BACKGROUND: Childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (cALL) is the most frequent pediatric cancer. Over the past decades, treatment of cALL has significantly improved, with cure rates close to 90%. However intensive chemotherapy and cranial radiotherapy (CRT) during a critical period of a child’s development have been shown to lead to significant long-term side effects including cardiometabolic complications. Using the PETALE (Prévenir les effets tardifs des traitements de la leucémie aiguë lymphoblastique chez l’enfant) cALL survivor cohort, we investigated the association between combined cumulative corticosteroids (CS) doses and CRT exposures and obesity, insulin resistance, (pre-)hypertension, and dyslipidemia jointly. METHODS: A Bayesian multivariate latent-t model which accounted for our correlated binary outcomes was used for the analyses (n = 241 survivors). CS doses were categorized as low (LD) or high (HD). Combined exposure levels investigated were: 1) LD/no CRT; 2) LD/CRT, and; 3) HD/CRT. We also performed complementary sensitivity analyses for covariate adjustment. RESULTS: Prevalence of cardiometabolic complications ranged from 12.0% for (pre-)hypertension to 40.2% for dyslipidemia. The fully adjusted odds ratio (OR) for dyslipidemia associated with LD/CRT (vs. LD/No CRT) was OR = 1.98 (95% credible interval (CrI): 1.02 to 3.88). LD/CRT level also led to a 0.15 (95% CrI: 0.00 to 0.29) excess risk to develop at least one cardiometabolic complication. Except for obesity, adjusted results for the highest exposure category HD/CRT were generally similar to those for LD/CRT albeit not statistically significant. White blood cell count at diagnosis, a proxy for cALL burden at diagnosis, was found associated with insulin resistance (OR = 1.08 for a 10-unit increase (× 10(9)/L), 95% CrI: 1.02 to 1.14). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that combined LD/CRT exposure is a likely determinant of dyslipidemia among cALL survivors. No evidence was found to suggest that high doses of CS lead to additional risk for obesity, insulin resistance, (pre-)hypertension, and dyslipidemia beyond that induced by CRT. The multivariate model selected for analyses was judged globally useful to assess potential exposure-related concomitance of binary outcomes. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12874-019-0725-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.