Factors Associated With Time to Elimination of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus in Individual Ontario Swine Herds Based on Surveillance Data

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) emerged into Canada in January of 2014. The virus was considered to be of high importance and the number of new cases were tracked using different mechanisms by stakeholders such as veterinary services from the provincial government and the swine industry. In addition to the initial date of infection, veterinary organizations in the swine industry maintained a disease control program (DCP) database that contained the date of declaration of freedom from PEDV in individual herds. Such data allowed for the determination of the duration of PEDV infection in individual herds based on herd type, year and season of diagnosis. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine time to PEDV elimination in Ontario swine herds infected between 2014 and 2017, on the basis of records from the DCP database; and to identify factors associated with the likelihood of elimination. Duration of time to eliminate PEDV was estimated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves. The final Cox's proportional hazard model included herd type, season and year of diagnosis. The hazard of PEDV elimination for premises that were farrow-to-wean was 3.36 times larger (P-value: 0.044, 95% CI: 1.03, 10.93) than for farrow-to-feeder herds. Herds diagnosed in the summer and fall had hazard ratios of 1.40 (P-value: 0.044, 95% CI: 1.03, 10.93) and 7.32 (P-value: <0.001, 95% CI: 3.12, 17.18), respectively compared to herds diagnosed in the winter months. The hazard ratio for herds diagnosed in 2015 was 0.54 (P-value: 0.015, 95% CI: 0.33, 0.89) compared to herds diagnosed in 2014. Factors associated with time to elimination are likely reflective of the complexity of infection control practices applied in herds with different demographics and population structures, seasonal variability in the pathogen transmissibility, and the availability of resources to manage an emerging production-limiting disease. The median times to elimination were relatively long, which could be due to how it was measured, decisions made at the level of individual herds or delays related to reporting PEDV elimination. Design of control measures for production-limiting diseases at the regional level should take these factors into consideration.