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Using an individual-based model to assess common biases in lek-based count data to estimate population trajectories of lesser prairie-chickens

Researchers and managers are often interested in monitoring the underlying state of a population (e.g., abundance), yet error in the observation process might mask underlying changes due to imperfect detection and availability for sampling. Additional heterogeneity can be introduced into a monitorin...

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Autores principales: Ross, Beth E., Sullins, Daniel S., Haukos, David A.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6524812/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31100093
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217172
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author Ross, Beth E.
Sullins, Daniel S.
Haukos, David A.
author_facet Ross, Beth E.
Sullins, Daniel S.
Haukos, David A.
author_sort Ross, Beth E.
collection PubMed
description Researchers and managers are often interested in monitoring the underlying state of a population (e.g., abundance), yet error in the observation process might mask underlying changes due to imperfect detection and availability for sampling. Additional heterogeneity can be introduced into a monitoring program when male-based surveys are used as an index for the total population. Often, male-based surveys are used for avian species, as males are conspicuous and more easily monitored than females. To determine if male-based lek surveys capture changes or trends in population abundance based on female survival and reproduction, we developed a virtual ecologist approach using the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) as an example. Our approach used an individual-based model to simulate lek counts based on female vital rate data, included models where detection and lek attendance probabilities were <1, and was analyzed using both unadjusted counts and an N-mixture model to compare estimates of population abundance and growth rates. Using lek counts to estimate population growth rates without accounting for detection probability or density-based lek attendance consistently biased population growth rates and abundance estimates. Our results therefore suggest that lek-based surveys used without accounting for lek attendance and detection probability may miss important trends in population changes. Rather than population-level inference, lek-based surveys not accounting for lek attendance and detection probability may instead be better for inferring broad-scale range shifts of lesser prairie-chicken populations in a presence/absence framework.
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spelling pubmed-65248122019-05-31 Using an individual-based model to assess common biases in lek-based count data to estimate population trajectories of lesser prairie-chickens Ross, Beth E. Sullins, Daniel S. Haukos, David A. PLoS One Research Article Researchers and managers are often interested in monitoring the underlying state of a population (e.g., abundance), yet error in the observation process might mask underlying changes due to imperfect detection and availability for sampling. Additional heterogeneity can be introduced into a monitoring program when male-based surveys are used as an index for the total population. Often, male-based surveys are used for avian species, as males are conspicuous and more easily monitored than females. To determine if male-based lek surveys capture changes or trends in population abundance based on female survival and reproduction, we developed a virtual ecologist approach using the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) as an example. Our approach used an individual-based model to simulate lek counts based on female vital rate data, included models where detection and lek attendance probabilities were <1, and was analyzed using both unadjusted counts and an N-mixture model to compare estimates of population abundance and growth rates. Using lek counts to estimate population growth rates without accounting for detection probability or density-based lek attendance consistently biased population growth rates and abundance estimates. Our results therefore suggest that lek-based surveys used without accounting for lek attendance and detection probability may miss important trends in population changes. Rather than population-level inference, lek-based surveys not accounting for lek attendance and detection probability may instead be better for inferring broad-scale range shifts of lesser prairie-chicken populations in a presence/absence framework. Public Library of Science 2019-05-17 /pmc/articles/PMC6524812/ /pubmed/31100093 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217172 Text en https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) public domain dedication.
spellingShingle Research Article
Ross, Beth E.
Sullins, Daniel S.
Haukos, David A.
Using an individual-based model to assess common biases in lek-based count data to estimate population trajectories of lesser prairie-chickens
title Using an individual-based model to assess common biases in lek-based count data to estimate population trajectories of lesser prairie-chickens
title_full Using an individual-based model to assess common biases in lek-based count data to estimate population trajectories of lesser prairie-chickens
title_fullStr Using an individual-based model to assess common biases in lek-based count data to estimate population trajectories of lesser prairie-chickens
title_full_unstemmed Using an individual-based model to assess common biases in lek-based count data to estimate population trajectories of lesser prairie-chickens
title_short Using an individual-based model to assess common biases in lek-based count data to estimate population trajectories of lesser prairie-chickens
title_sort using an individual-based model to assess common biases in lek-based count data to estimate population trajectories of lesser prairie-chickens
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6524812/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31100093
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217172
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