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Comparison of spatiotemporal patterns of historic natural Anthrax outbreaks in Minnesota and Kazakhstan

Disease spread in populations is a consequence of the interaction between host, pathogen, and environment, i.e. the epidemiological triad. Yet the influences of each triad component may vary dramatically for different settings. Comparison of environmental, demographic, socio-economic, and historical...

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Autores principales: Kanankege, Kaushi S. T., Abdrakhmanov, Sarsenbay K., Alvarez, Julio, Glaser, Linda, Bender, Jeffrey B., Mukhanbetkaliyev, Yersyn Y., Korennoy, Fedor I., Kadyrov, Ablaikhan S., Abdrakhmanova, Aruzhan S., Perez, Andres M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6524940/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31100100
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217144
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author Kanankege, Kaushi S. T.
Abdrakhmanov, Sarsenbay K.
Alvarez, Julio
Glaser, Linda
Bender, Jeffrey B.
Mukhanbetkaliyev, Yersyn Y.
Korennoy, Fedor I.
Kadyrov, Ablaikhan S.
Abdrakhmanova, Aruzhan S.
Perez, Andres M.
author_facet Kanankege, Kaushi S. T.
Abdrakhmanov, Sarsenbay K.
Alvarez, Julio
Glaser, Linda
Bender, Jeffrey B.
Mukhanbetkaliyev, Yersyn Y.
Korennoy, Fedor I.
Kadyrov, Ablaikhan S.
Abdrakhmanova, Aruzhan S.
Perez, Andres M.
author_sort Kanankege, Kaushi S. T.
collection PubMed
description Disease spread in populations is a consequence of the interaction between host, pathogen, and environment, i.e. the epidemiological triad. Yet the influences of each triad component may vary dramatically for different settings. Comparison of environmental, demographic, socio-economic, and historical backgrounds may support tailoring site-specific control measures. Because of the long-term survival of Bacillus anthracis, Anthrax is a suitable example for studying the influence of triad components in different endemic settings. We compared the spatiotemporal patterns of historic animal Anthrax records in two endemic areas, located at northern latitudes in the western and eastern hemispheres. Our goal was to compare the spatiotemporal patterns in Anthrax progression, intensity, direction, and recurrence (disease hot spots), in relation to epidemiological factors and potential trigger events. Reported animal cases in Minnesota, USA (n = 289 cases between 1912 and 2014) and Kazakhstan (n = 3,997 cases between 1933 and 2014) were analyzed using the spatiotemporal directionality test and the spatial scan statistic. Over the last century Anthrax occurrence in Minnesota was sporadic whereas Kazakhstan experienced a long-term epidemic. Nevertheless, the seasonality was comparable between sites, with a peak in August. Declining number of cases at both sites was attributed to vaccination and control measures. The spatiotemporal directionality test detected a relative northeastern directionality in disease spread for long-term trends in Minnesota, whereas a southwestern directionality was observed in Kazakhstan. In terms of recurrence, the maximum timespans between cases at the same location were 55 and 60 years for Minnesota and Kazakhstan, respectively. Disease hotspots were recognized in both settings, with spatially overlapping clusters years apart. Distribution of the spatiotemporal cluster radii between study sites supported suggestion of site-specific control zones. Spatiotemporal patterns of Anthrax occurrence in both endemic regions were attributed to multiple potential trigger events including major river floods, changes in land use, agriculture, and susceptible livestock populations. Results here help to understand the long-term epidemiological dynamics of Anthrax while providing suggestions to the design and implementation of prevention and control programs, in endemic settings.
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spelling pubmed-65249402019-05-31 Comparison of spatiotemporal patterns of historic natural Anthrax outbreaks in Minnesota and Kazakhstan Kanankege, Kaushi S. T. Abdrakhmanov, Sarsenbay K. Alvarez, Julio Glaser, Linda Bender, Jeffrey B. Mukhanbetkaliyev, Yersyn Y. Korennoy, Fedor I. Kadyrov, Ablaikhan S. Abdrakhmanova, Aruzhan S. Perez, Andres M. PLoS One Research Article Disease spread in populations is a consequence of the interaction between host, pathogen, and environment, i.e. the epidemiological triad. Yet the influences of each triad component may vary dramatically for different settings. Comparison of environmental, demographic, socio-economic, and historical backgrounds may support tailoring site-specific control measures. Because of the long-term survival of Bacillus anthracis, Anthrax is a suitable example for studying the influence of triad components in different endemic settings. We compared the spatiotemporal patterns of historic animal Anthrax records in two endemic areas, located at northern latitudes in the western and eastern hemispheres. Our goal was to compare the spatiotemporal patterns in Anthrax progression, intensity, direction, and recurrence (disease hot spots), in relation to epidemiological factors and potential trigger events. Reported animal cases in Minnesota, USA (n = 289 cases between 1912 and 2014) and Kazakhstan (n = 3,997 cases between 1933 and 2014) were analyzed using the spatiotemporal directionality test and the spatial scan statistic. Over the last century Anthrax occurrence in Minnesota was sporadic whereas Kazakhstan experienced a long-term epidemic. Nevertheless, the seasonality was comparable between sites, with a peak in August. Declining number of cases at both sites was attributed to vaccination and control measures. The spatiotemporal directionality test detected a relative northeastern directionality in disease spread for long-term trends in Minnesota, whereas a southwestern directionality was observed in Kazakhstan. In terms of recurrence, the maximum timespans between cases at the same location were 55 and 60 years for Minnesota and Kazakhstan, respectively. Disease hotspots were recognized in both settings, with spatially overlapping clusters years apart. Distribution of the spatiotemporal cluster radii between study sites supported suggestion of site-specific control zones. Spatiotemporal patterns of Anthrax occurrence in both endemic regions were attributed to multiple potential trigger events including major river floods, changes in land use, agriculture, and susceptible livestock populations. Results here help to understand the long-term epidemiological dynamics of Anthrax while providing suggestions to the design and implementation of prevention and control programs, in endemic settings. Public Library of Science 2019-05-17 /pmc/articles/PMC6524940/ /pubmed/31100100 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217144 Text en © 2019 Kanankege et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Kanankege, Kaushi S. T.
Abdrakhmanov, Sarsenbay K.
Alvarez, Julio
Glaser, Linda
Bender, Jeffrey B.
Mukhanbetkaliyev, Yersyn Y.
Korennoy, Fedor I.
Kadyrov, Ablaikhan S.
Abdrakhmanova, Aruzhan S.
Perez, Andres M.
Comparison of spatiotemporal patterns of historic natural Anthrax outbreaks in Minnesota and Kazakhstan
title Comparison of spatiotemporal patterns of historic natural Anthrax outbreaks in Minnesota and Kazakhstan
title_full Comparison of spatiotemporal patterns of historic natural Anthrax outbreaks in Minnesota and Kazakhstan
title_fullStr Comparison of spatiotemporal patterns of historic natural Anthrax outbreaks in Minnesota and Kazakhstan
title_full_unstemmed Comparison of spatiotemporal patterns of historic natural Anthrax outbreaks in Minnesota and Kazakhstan
title_short Comparison of spatiotemporal patterns of historic natural Anthrax outbreaks in Minnesota and Kazakhstan
title_sort comparison of spatiotemporal patterns of historic natural anthrax outbreaks in minnesota and kazakhstan
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6524940/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31100100
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217144
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