Prediction of pathologic stage in non-small cell lung cancer using machine learning algorithm based on CT image feature analysis

PURPOSE: To explore imaging biomarkers that can be used for diagnosis and prediction of pathologic stage in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) using multiple machine learning algorithms based on CT image feature analysis. METHODS: Patients with stage IA to IV NSCLC were included, and the whole dataset was divided into training and testing sets and an external validation set. To tackle imbalanced datasets in NSCLC, we generated a new dataset and achieved equilibrium of class distribution by using SMOTE algorithm. The datasets were randomly split up into a training/testing set. We calculated the importance value of CT image features by means of mean decrease gini impurity generated by random forest algorithm and selected optimal features according to feature importance (mean decrease gini impurity > 0.005). The performance of prediction model in training and testing sets were evaluated from the perspectives of classification accuracy, average precision (AP) score and precision-recall curve. The predictive accuracy of the model was externally validated using lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) and lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) samples from TCGA database. RESULTS: The prediction model that incorporated nine image features exhibited a high classification accuracy, precision and recall scores in the training and testing sets. In the external validation, the predictive accuracy of the model in LUAD outperformed that in LUSC. CONCLUSIONS: The pathologic stage of patients with NSCLC can be accurately predicted based on CT image features, especially for LUAD. Our findings extend the application of machine learning algorithms in CT image feature prediction for pathologic staging and identify potential imaging biomarkers that can be used for diagnosis of pathologic stage in NSCLC patients. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-019-5646-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.