Evaluation of Land Cover Change and Agricultural Protection Sites: A GIS and Remote Sensing Approach for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), economic center and most populous city of Vietnam faces a strong structural change since its market liberalization in the late 1980s. Big challenges occur in the form of uncontrolled urban sprawl due to rapid population growth with encroachment of agricultural land, which leads to environmental and climatic issues like urban heat island effects, air pollution and flooding events. Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provide new computer-based technologies for urban planners which can greatly ease the monitoring of agricultural loss as well as improve decision making for future land management. In the first part of this study, land cover change dynamics are thoroughly assessed using moderate and high spatial resolution satellite imagery (Landsat and SPOT) over the period 2010–2017 in 22 districts of HCMC. In the second part, the land cover classification results of 2017 provide the initial map for a GIS-based Multi-Criteria-Decision-Analysis (MCDA) of potential agricultural protection sites. Therefore, criteria of climate adaptation and ecological service are established and embedded in the GIS-compatible Compromise Programming Model (CP). With the use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) by Thomas L. Saaty and additional expert knowledge, appropriate weighting factors have been affiliated. The results show that agricultural land decreased by more than two thirds in the period considered. However, particularly the western rural districts Bình Chánh and Hóc Môn still offer a great amount of valuable agricultural land suitable for protection. The proposed method can serve as a scientific framework for planning departments of fast growing cities to zone agricultural land for protection on an early planning stage in order to ensure sustainable land use development in the future.