Comparing Patient Risk Factor-, Sequence Type-, and Resistance Locus Identification-Based Approaches for Predicting Antibiotic Resistance in Escherichia coli Bloodstream Infections

Rapid diagnostic tests for antibiotic resistance that identify the presence or absence of antibiotic resistance genes/loci are increasingly being developed. However, these approaches usually neglect other sources of predictive information which could be identified over shorter time periods, including patient epidemiologic risk factors for antibiotic resistance and markers of lineage. Using a data set of 414 Escherichia coli isolates recovered from separate episodes of bacteremia at a single academic institution in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, between 2010 and 2015, we compared the potential predictive ability of three approaches (epidemiologic risk factor-, pathogen sequence type [ST]-, and resistance gene identification-based approaches) for classifying phenotypic resistance to three antibiotics representing classes of broad-spectrum antimicrobial therapy (ceftriaxone [a 3rd-generation cephalosporin], ciprofloxacin [a fluoroquinolone], and gentamicin [an aminoglycoside]). We used logistic regression models to generate model receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Predictive discrimination was measured using apparent and corrected (bootstrapped) areas under the curves (AUCs). Epidemiologic risk factor-based models based on two simple risk factors (prior antibiotic exposure and recent prior susceptibility of Gram-negative bacteria) provided a modest predictive discrimination, with AUCs ranging from 0.65 to 0.74. Sequence type-based models demonstrated strong discrimination (AUCs, 0.83 to 0.94) across all three antibiotic classes. The addition of epidemiologic risk factors to sequence type significantly improved the ability to predict resistance for all antibiotics (P < 0.05). Resistance gene identification-based approaches provided the highest degree of discrimination (AUCs, 0.88 to 0.99), with no statistically significant benefit being achieved by adding the patient epidemiologic predictors. In summary, sequence type or other lineage-based approaches could produce an excellent discrimination of antibiotic resistance and may be improved by incorporating readily available patient epidemiologic predictors but are less discriminatory than identification of the presence of known resistance loci.