Serum Apolipoprotein B and A1 Concentrations Predict Late-Onset Posttransplant Diabetes Mellitus in Prevalent Adult Kidney Transplant Recipients

BACKGROUND: Glucose metabolism links closely to cholesterol metabolism. Posttransplant diabetes mellitus (PTDM) adversely affects posttransplant outcomes, but its risk factors in relation to cholesterol metabolism have not been fully delineated. The apolipoprotein B/A1 (Apo B/A1) ratio, which is associated with insulin resistance, has not been evaluated in kidney transplant recipients as a risk factor for PTDM. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine whether serum apolipoprotein profiles predict late PTDM, defined as a new onset diabetes occurring greater than 3 months posttransplant. DESIGN: Retrospective chart review of a prevalent population of kidney transplant recipients. SETTING: Large transplant center in Ontario, Canada. PATIENTS: We identified 1104 previously nondiabetic adults who received a kidney transplant between January 1, 1998, and December 1, 2015, and were followed at 1 transplant center. MEASUREMENTS: Recipients provided testing for serum apolipoprotein B (Apo B) and apolipoprotein A1 (Apo A1) concentrations from 2010, either at 3 months posttransplant for new transplant recipients or the next clinic visit for prevalent recipients. Late PTDM defined using Canadian Diabetes Association criteria as occurring ≥3 months posttransplant was recorded until May 1, 2016. METHODS: All analyses were conducted with R, version 3.4.0 (The R Foundation for Statistical Computing). Comparisons were made using Student t test, Fisher exact test or chi-square test, Kaplan-Meier methodology with the logrank test, or Cox proportional hazards analysis as appropriate. Covariates for the multivariate Cox proportional hazards models of PTDM as the outcome variable were selected based on significance of the univariate associations and biological plausibility. RESULTS: There were 53 incident late PTDM cases, or 1.71 cases per 100 patient-years. Incident late PTDM differed between the highest and lowest quartiles for Apo B/A1 ratio, 2.47 per 100 patient-years vs 0.88 per 100 patient-years (P = .005 for difference). In multiple Cox regression analysis, first measured serum Apo B/A1 concentration better predicted subsequent PTDM than low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C; hazard ratio [HR] = 7.80 per unit increase, P = .039 vs HR = 1.05 per unit increase, P = .774). Non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) concentrations also did not predict PTDM (P = .136). By contrast to Apo B, Apo A1 was protective against PTDM in statin users (HR = 0.17 per unit increase, P = .016). LIMITATIONS: Posttransplant diabetes mellitus cases occurring before apolipoprotein testing was implemented were not included in the analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Apolipoproteins B and A1 better predict late PTDM than conventional markers of cholesterol metabolism.