Coronary calcification as a predictor of cardiovascular mortality in advanced chronic kidney disease: a prospective long-term follow-up study

BACKGROUND: Patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) exhibit higher prevalence of coronary artery calcification (CaC) than general population. CaC has been proposed as a risk factor for mortality in end-stage CKD, but most studies in the field are based on short-term follow-up. METHODS: We conducted a cohort, 10-year prospective longitudinal study of consecutive cases referred to the renal unit. A non-enhanced multislice coronary computed tomography was performed at baseline. CaC was assessed by Agatston method. Patients were stratified according to their CaC score: severe calcification group (CaCs< 400 HU) and mild-moderate calcification group (CaCs≥400 HU). The overall and cardiovascular (CV) mortality, CV events, and factors potentially associated with CaC development were recorded. RESULTS: 137 patients with advanced CKD were enrolled and provided consent. Overall mortality rate was 58%; 40% due to CV events. The rate of overall mortality in the severe calcification group was 75%, and 30% in the low calcification group, whereas the rate of CV mortality was 35% vs. 6%, respectively (p < 0.001). The severe calcification group was older, had higher prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, former cardiologic events, and lower albumin serum levels than the mild-moderate calcification group. In a multivariate Cox model, severe CaC was a significant predictor of CV mortality (HR 5.01; 95%CI 1.28 to 19.6, p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Among advanced CKD, there was a significantly increase of CV mortality in patients with severe CaCs during a 10-year follow-up period. CaCs could be a useful prognostic tool to predict CV mortality risk in CKD patients. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12882-019-1367-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.