Predictors of placebo response to local (intra-articular) therapy in osteoarthritis: an individual patient data meta-analysis protocol

INTRODUCTION: Osteoarthritis (OA) is a highly prevalent and disabling condition with limited safe and effective treatment options. Intra-articular therapies are increasingly being used, however whether the effect of these agents is due to active treatment or placebo remains unclear. As the placebo response can be attributed to multiple factors, assessment of the placebo response using individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis will give insight into the different modifiers of response to placebo. The aim of this IPD meta-analysis is to investigate the predictors of placebo response in intra-articular injection trials in OA. IPD meta-analysis is considered to be superior to conventional meta-analysis, as it combines multiple trial data, facilitates the standardisation of analyses across different studies and allows measuring derivation of the desired information. METHOD AND ANALYSIS: A systematic literature search will be conducted for randomised clinical trials comparing corticosteroid and viscosupplementation/hyaluronic acid intra-articular injections with placebo for knee and hip OA. Pubmed (Medline), EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Central and SCOPUS will be searched from inception to September 2018. Corresponding authors of the original trials will be contacted to obtain IPD. Risk of bias will be assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration’s tool. The primary outcome will be change in pain from baseline. Secondary outcomes will be change in function and patient’s global assessment. Potential predictors of placebo response assessed will include patient’s characteristics, pain mechanism characteristics, radiographic severity, pain severity, intervention characteristics and trial design characteristics. A multilevel logistic regression analyses will be applied. Results will be reported using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta-Analysis -IPD guidelines. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study does not include identifiable data and ethical approval was obtained by the original investigators. Results of the IPD meta-analysis will be disseminated for publication in peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42018095188