An accurate prediction model to identify undiagnosed at-risk patients with COPD: a cross-sectional case-finding study

Underuse or unavailability of spirometry is one of the most important factors causing underdiagnosis of COPD. We reported the development of a COPD prediction model to identify at-risk, undiagnosed COPD patients when spirometry was unavailable. This cross-sectional study enrolled subjects aged ≥40 years with respiratory symptoms and a smoking history (≥20 pack-years) in a medical center in two separate periods (development and validation cohorts). All subjects completed COPD assessment test (CAT), peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR) measurement, and confirmatory spirometry. A binary logistic model with calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test) and discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]) was implemented. Three hundred and one subjects (development cohort) completed the study, including non-COPD (154, 51.2%) and COPD cases (147; stage I, 27.2%; II, 55.8%; III–IV, 17%). Compared with non-COPD and GOLD I cases, GOLD II-IV patients exhibited significantly higher CAT scores and lower lung function, and were considered clinically significant for COPD. Four independent variables (age, smoking pack-years, CAT score, and percent predicted PEFR) were incorporated developing the prediction model, which estimated the COPD probability (P(COPD)). This model demonstrated favorable discrimination (AUROC: 0.866/0.828; 95% CI 0.825–0.906/0.751–0.904) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.332/0.668) for the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Bootstrap validation with 1000 replicates yielded an AUROC of 0.866 (95% CI 0.821–0.905). A P(COPD) of ≥0.65 identified COPD patients with high specificity (90%) and a large proportion (91.4%) of patients with clinically significant COPD (development cohort). Our prediction model can help physicians effectively identify at-risk, undiagnosed COPD patients for further diagnostic evaluation and timely treatment when spirometry is unavailable.