Assessing the performance of monocyte to high-density lipoprotein ratio for predicting ischemic stroke: insights from a population-based Chinese cohort

BACKGROUND: Monocyte to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (MHR) is a recently emerged measure of inflammation and oxidative stress and has been used to predict multiple cardiovascular abnormalities, but data relative to ischemic stroke are lacking. The goal of this study was to estimate the associations of MHR and prevalent ischemic stroke among a large cohort of general Chinese population. METHOD: The study analyzed 8148 individuals (mean age: 54.1 years; 45.7% males) enrolled in a cross-sectional population-based Northeast China Rural Cardiovascular Health Study (NCRCHS). We identified 194 patients admitted from January and August 2013 with ischemic stroke. RESULTS: After adjustment for age, sex, and potential confounders, each standard deviation (SD) increment of MHR was predictive to a greater odd of ischemic stroke (odds ratio, 1.276; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.082–1.504), with subjects in the highest quartile of MHR levels having a 1.6-fold higher risk of prevalent ischemic stroke (95% CI, 1.045–2.524) as compared with those in the lowest quartile. Moreover, smoothing curve showed a linear positive pattern of this association. The area under the curve (AUC) significantly increased (P = 0.042) to 0.808 (95% CI, 0.779–0.837) when the combined MHR was added to the baseline logistic regression model with ischemic stroke risk factors. Also, MHR (0.004) significantly improved integrated discrimination improvement when added to the baseline model. CONCLUSIONS: The present study demonstrated for the first time a linear relation between MHR levels and the odds of ischemic stroke in a large community-based population. The MHR, a marker of high atherosclerotic burden, demonstrated incremental predictive value over traditional clinical risk factors, thus providing clinical utility in risk stratification in subjects presenting with ischemic stroke. These findings had implications for strategies aimed at lowering MHR to prevent adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular outcomes.