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Estimating the impact of city-wide Aedes aegypti population control: An observational study in Iquitos, Peru
During the last 50 years, the geographic range of the mosquito Aedes aegypti has increased dramatically, in parallel with a sharp increase in the disease burden from the viruses it transmits, including Zika, chikungunya, and dengue. There is a growing consensus that vector control is essential to pr...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2019
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6542505/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31145744 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007255 |
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author | Reiner, Robert C. Stoddard, Steven T. Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M. Astete, Helvio Perkins, T. Alex Sihuincha, Moises Stancil, Jeffrey D. Smith, David L. Kochel, Tadeuz J. Halsey, Eric S. Kitron, Uriel Morrison, Amy C. Scott, Thomas W. |
author_facet | Reiner, Robert C. Stoddard, Steven T. Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M. Astete, Helvio Perkins, T. Alex Sihuincha, Moises Stancil, Jeffrey D. Smith, David L. Kochel, Tadeuz J. Halsey, Eric S. Kitron, Uriel Morrison, Amy C. Scott, Thomas W. |
author_sort | Reiner, Robert C. |
collection | PubMed |
description | During the last 50 years, the geographic range of the mosquito Aedes aegypti has increased dramatically, in parallel with a sharp increase in the disease burden from the viruses it transmits, including Zika, chikungunya, and dengue. There is a growing consensus that vector control is essential to prevent Aedes-borne diseases, even as effective vaccines become available. What remains unclear is how effective vector control is across broad operational scales because the data and the analytical tools necessary to isolate the effect of vector-oriented interventions have not been available. We developed a statistical framework to model Ae. aegypti abundance over space and time and applied it to explore the impact of citywide vector control conducted by the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Iquitos, Peru, over a 12-year period. Citywide interventions involved multiple rounds of intradomicile insecticide space spray over large portions of urban Iquitos (up to 40% of all residences) in response to dengue outbreaks. Our model captured significant levels of spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal variation in Ae. aegypti abundance within and between years and across the city. We estimated the shape of the relationship between the coverage of neighborhood-level vector control and reductions in female Ae. aegypti abundance; i.e., the dose-response curve. The dose-response curve, with its associated uncertainties, can be used to gauge the necessary spraying effort required to achieve a desired effect and is a critical tool currently absent from vector control programs. We found that with complete neighborhood coverage MoH intra-domicile space spray would decrease Ae. aegypti abundance on average by 67% in the treated neighborhood. Our framework can be directly translated to other interventions in other locations with geolocated mosquito abundance data. Results from our analysis can be used to inform future vector-control applications in Ae. aegypti endemic areas globally. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6542505 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2019 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-65425052019-06-05 Estimating the impact of city-wide Aedes aegypti population control: An observational study in Iquitos, Peru Reiner, Robert C. Stoddard, Steven T. Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M. Astete, Helvio Perkins, T. Alex Sihuincha, Moises Stancil, Jeffrey D. Smith, David L. Kochel, Tadeuz J. Halsey, Eric S. Kitron, Uriel Morrison, Amy C. Scott, Thomas W. PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article During the last 50 years, the geographic range of the mosquito Aedes aegypti has increased dramatically, in parallel with a sharp increase in the disease burden from the viruses it transmits, including Zika, chikungunya, and dengue. There is a growing consensus that vector control is essential to prevent Aedes-borne diseases, even as effective vaccines become available. What remains unclear is how effective vector control is across broad operational scales because the data and the analytical tools necessary to isolate the effect of vector-oriented interventions have not been available. We developed a statistical framework to model Ae. aegypti abundance over space and time and applied it to explore the impact of citywide vector control conducted by the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Iquitos, Peru, over a 12-year period. Citywide interventions involved multiple rounds of intradomicile insecticide space spray over large portions of urban Iquitos (up to 40% of all residences) in response to dengue outbreaks. Our model captured significant levels of spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal variation in Ae. aegypti abundance within and between years and across the city. We estimated the shape of the relationship between the coverage of neighborhood-level vector control and reductions in female Ae. aegypti abundance; i.e., the dose-response curve. The dose-response curve, with its associated uncertainties, can be used to gauge the necessary spraying effort required to achieve a desired effect and is a critical tool currently absent from vector control programs. We found that with complete neighborhood coverage MoH intra-domicile space spray would decrease Ae. aegypti abundance on average by 67% in the treated neighborhood. Our framework can be directly translated to other interventions in other locations with geolocated mosquito abundance data. Results from our analysis can be used to inform future vector-control applications in Ae. aegypti endemic areas globally. Public Library of Science 2019-05-30 /pmc/articles/PMC6542505/ /pubmed/31145744 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007255 Text en https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) public domain dedication. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Reiner, Robert C. Stoddard, Steven T. Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M. Astete, Helvio Perkins, T. Alex Sihuincha, Moises Stancil, Jeffrey D. Smith, David L. Kochel, Tadeuz J. Halsey, Eric S. Kitron, Uriel Morrison, Amy C. Scott, Thomas W. Estimating the impact of city-wide Aedes aegypti population control: An observational study in Iquitos, Peru |
title | Estimating the impact of city-wide Aedes aegypti population control: An observational study in Iquitos, Peru |
title_full | Estimating the impact of city-wide Aedes aegypti population control: An observational study in Iquitos, Peru |
title_fullStr | Estimating the impact of city-wide Aedes aegypti population control: An observational study in Iquitos, Peru |
title_full_unstemmed | Estimating the impact of city-wide Aedes aegypti population control: An observational study in Iquitos, Peru |
title_short | Estimating the impact of city-wide Aedes aegypti population control: An observational study in Iquitos, Peru |
title_sort | estimating the impact of city-wide aedes aegypti population control: an observational study in iquitos, peru |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6542505/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31145744 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007255 |
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