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Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities

Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2°C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-r...

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Autores principales: Lo, Y. T. Eunice, Mitchell, Daniel M., Gasparrini, Antonio, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M., Ebi, Kristie L., Frumhoff, Peter C., Millar, Richard J., Roberts, William, Sera, Francesco, Sparrow, Sarah, Uhe, Peter, Williams, Gethin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: American Association for the Advancement of Science 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6551192/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31183397
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau4373
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author Lo, Y. T. Eunice
Mitchell, Daniel M.
Gasparrini, Antonio
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.
Ebi, Kristie L.
Frumhoff, Peter C.
Millar, Richard J.
Roberts, William
Sera, Francesco
Sparrow, Sarah
Uhe, Peter
Williams, Gethin
author_facet Lo, Y. T. Eunice
Mitchell, Daniel M.
Gasparrini, Antonio
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.
Ebi, Kristie L.
Frumhoff, Peter C.
Millar, Richard J.
Roberts, William
Sera, Francesco
Sparrow, Sarah
Uhe, Peter
Williams, Gethin
author_sort Lo, Y. T. Eunice
collection PubMed
description Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2°C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3°C trajectory and warming of 2° and 1.5°C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2°C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5°C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the United States.
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spelling pubmed-65511922019-06-10 Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities Lo, Y. T. Eunice Mitchell, Daniel M. Gasparrini, Antonio Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M. Ebi, Kristie L. Frumhoff, Peter C. Millar, Richard J. Roberts, William Sera, Francesco Sparrow, Sarah Uhe, Peter Williams, Gethin Sci Adv Research Articles Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2°C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3°C trajectory and warming of 2° and 1.5°C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2°C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5°C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the United States. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2019-06-05 /pmc/articles/PMC6551192/ /pubmed/31183397 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau4373 Text en Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Articles
Lo, Y. T. Eunice
Mitchell, Daniel M.
Gasparrini, Antonio
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.
Ebi, Kristie L.
Frumhoff, Peter C.
Millar, Richard J.
Roberts, William
Sera, Francesco
Sparrow, Sarah
Uhe, Peter
Williams, Gethin
Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities
title Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities
title_full Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities
title_fullStr Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities
title_full_unstemmed Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities
title_short Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities
title_sort increasing mitigation ambition to meet the paris agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in u.s. cities
topic Research Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6551192/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31183397
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau4373
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