Nomogram-based parameters to predict overall survival in a real-world advanced cancer population undergoing palliative care

BACKGROUND: Although palliative care has been accepted throughout the cancer trajectory, accurate survival prediction for advanced cancer patients is still a challenge. The aim of this study is to identify pre-palliative care predictors and develop a prognostic nomogram for overall survival (OS) in mixed advanced cancer patients. METHODS: A total of 378 consecutive advanced cancer patients were retrospectively recruited from July 2013 to October 2015 in one palliative care unit in China. Twenty-three clinical and laboratory characters were collected for analysis. Prognostic factors were identified to construct a nomogram in a training cohort (n = 247) and validated in a testing cohort (n = 131) from the setting. RESULTS: The median survival time was 48.0 (95% CI: 38.1–57.9) days for the training cohort and 52.0 (95% CI: 34.6–69.3) days for the validation cohort. Among pre-palliative care factors, sex, age, tumor stage, Karnofsky performance status, neutrophil count, hemoglobin, lactate dehydrogenase, albumin, uric acid, and cystatin-C were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS. Based on the 10 factors, an easily obtained nomogram predicting 90-day probability of mortality was developed. The predictive nomogram had good discrimination and calibration, with a high C-index of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.73–0.80) in the development set. The strong discriminative ability was externally conformed in the validation cohort with a C-index of 0.75. CONCLUSIONS: A validated prognostic nomogram has been developed to quantify the risk of mortality for advanced cancer patients undergoing palliative care. This tool may be useful in optimizing therapeutic approaches and preparing for clinical courses individually. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12904-019-0432-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.