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Coronary heart disease and stroke disease burden attributable to fruit and vegetable intake in Japan: projected DALYS to 2060

BACKGROUND: Fruit and vegetable consumption was considered a protective effect against cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (CVDs). This study aimed to project the reduction in the CVD burden under different scenarios of increased fruit and vegetable intake in Japan by 2060. METHODS: Populati...

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Autores principales: Mo, Xiuting, Gai, Ruoyan Tobe, Sawada, Kimi, Takahashi, Yoshimutsu, Cox, Sharon E., Nakayama, Takeo, Mori, Rintaro
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6555950/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31174509
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-019-7047-z
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author Mo, Xiuting
Gai, Ruoyan Tobe
Sawada, Kimi
Takahashi, Yoshimutsu
Cox, Sharon E.
Nakayama, Takeo
Mori, Rintaro
author_facet Mo, Xiuting
Gai, Ruoyan Tobe
Sawada, Kimi
Takahashi, Yoshimutsu
Cox, Sharon E.
Nakayama, Takeo
Mori, Rintaro
author_sort Mo, Xiuting
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Fruit and vegetable consumption was considered a protective effect against cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (CVDs). This study aimed to project the reduction in the CVD burden under different scenarios of increased fruit and vegetable intake in Japan by 2060. METHODS: Population attributable fractions (PAF) were calculated by gender and age in 2015. The projection considered five scenarios for 2015, 2030, 2045, and 2060: 1) a baseline of no changes in intake; 2) a moderate increase in fruit intake (extra 50 g/day or 1/2 serving); 3) an high increase in fruit intake (extra 100 g/day or 1 serving); 4) a moderate increase in vegetable intake (extra 70 g/day or 1 serving); and 5) an high increase in vegetable intake (extra 140 g/day or 2 servings). Potentially preventable disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for CVDs were estimated for each scenario. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to calculate the 95% confidence intervals of the estimates. RESULTS: Across all age groups, men had a higher daily vegetable intake than women (292.7 g/d > 279.3 g/d) but a lower daily fruit intake (99.3 g/d < 121.0 g/d). Comparing with recommended intake level (350 g/d of vegetable and 200 g/d of fruit), the total CVD burden was estimated to be 302,055 DALYs attributable to inadequate fruit consumption in 2015, which accounted for 12.6% of the total CVD burden (vegetable: 202,651 DALYs; 8.5%). In 2060, the percentage of the CVD burden due to insufficient intake of fruit is estimated to decrease to 7.9% under the moderate increase scenario and to decrease to 4.5% under the high increase scenario (vegetable: 5.4%; 2.4%). CONCLUSIONS: The study suggested that a relevantly large percentage of the CVD burden can be alleviated by promoting even modest increases in fruit and vegetable consumption in Japan. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-7047-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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spelling pubmed-65559502019-06-10 Coronary heart disease and stroke disease burden attributable to fruit and vegetable intake in Japan: projected DALYS to 2060 Mo, Xiuting Gai, Ruoyan Tobe Sawada, Kimi Takahashi, Yoshimutsu Cox, Sharon E. Nakayama, Takeo Mori, Rintaro BMC Public Health Research Article BACKGROUND: Fruit and vegetable consumption was considered a protective effect against cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (CVDs). This study aimed to project the reduction in the CVD burden under different scenarios of increased fruit and vegetable intake in Japan by 2060. METHODS: Population attributable fractions (PAF) were calculated by gender and age in 2015. The projection considered five scenarios for 2015, 2030, 2045, and 2060: 1) a baseline of no changes in intake; 2) a moderate increase in fruit intake (extra 50 g/day or 1/2 serving); 3) an high increase in fruit intake (extra 100 g/day or 1 serving); 4) a moderate increase in vegetable intake (extra 70 g/day or 1 serving); and 5) an high increase in vegetable intake (extra 140 g/day or 2 servings). Potentially preventable disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for CVDs were estimated for each scenario. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to calculate the 95% confidence intervals of the estimates. RESULTS: Across all age groups, men had a higher daily vegetable intake than women (292.7 g/d > 279.3 g/d) but a lower daily fruit intake (99.3 g/d < 121.0 g/d). Comparing with recommended intake level (350 g/d of vegetable and 200 g/d of fruit), the total CVD burden was estimated to be 302,055 DALYs attributable to inadequate fruit consumption in 2015, which accounted for 12.6% of the total CVD burden (vegetable: 202,651 DALYs; 8.5%). In 2060, the percentage of the CVD burden due to insufficient intake of fruit is estimated to decrease to 7.9% under the moderate increase scenario and to decrease to 4.5% under the high increase scenario (vegetable: 5.4%; 2.4%). CONCLUSIONS: The study suggested that a relevantly large percentage of the CVD burden can be alleviated by promoting even modest increases in fruit and vegetable consumption in Japan. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-7047-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. BioMed Central 2019-06-07 /pmc/articles/PMC6555950/ /pubmed/31174509 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-019-7047-z Text en © The Author(s). 2019 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
spellingShingle Research Article
Mo, Xiuting
Gai, Ruoyan Tobe
Sawada, Kimi
Takahashi, Yoshimutsu
Cox, Sharon E.
Nakayama, Takeo
Mori, Rintaro
Coronary heart disease and stroke disease burden attributable to fruit and vegetable intake in Japan: projected DALYS to 2060
title Coronary heart disease and stroke disease burden attributable to fruit and vegetable intake in Japan: projected DALYS to 2060
title_full Coronary heart disease and stroke disease burden attributable to fruit and vegetable intake in Japan: projected DALYS to 2060
title_fullStr Coronary heart disease and stroke disease burden attributable to fruit and vegetable intake in Japan: projected DALYS to 2060
title_full_unstemmed Coronary heart disease and stroke disease burden attributable to fruit and vegetable intake in Japan: projected DALYS to 2060
title_short Coronary heart disease and stroke disease burden attributable to fruit and vegetable intake in Japan: projected DALYS to 2060
title_sort coronary heart disease and stroke disease burden attributable to fruit and vegetable intake in japan: projected dalys to 2060
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6555950/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31174509
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-019-7047-z
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