Adiponectin and the risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

Background: Adiponectin has been suggested as a marker of many cardiovascular diseases. However, the association between serum adiponectin and incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in general population remains unclear. A meta-analysis was performed to systematically evaluate the potential influence of serum adiponectin at baseline on the incidence of AF during follow-up in general population. Methods: Prospective cohort studies were identified via electronic search of PubMed and Embase databases. A randomized effect model was applied to combine the results. Predefined subgroup analyses were performed to evaluate the influence of study characteristics on the association between baseline adiponectin and risk of new-onset AF. Results: Six cohort studies with 18558 community-derived participants were included, and 3165 AF cases were developed with a mean follow-up duration of up to 22 years. Meta-analysis showed that higher baseline circulating adiponectin was significantly associated with higher risk of new-onset AF during follow-up (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08–1.27, P<0.001, I(2) = 52%). Subgroup analyses showed that the association between adiponectin and new-onset AF was significant in studies with mean follow-up duration over 10 years (five cohorts, HR = 1.22, P<0.001), but not in that with a follow-up duration < 10 years (one cohort, HR = 0.95, P=0.51; P for subgroup difference = 0.002). Conclusions: Higher circulating adiponectin at baseline may be an independent risk factor for the development of new-onset AF during follow-up, particularly in cohort studies with longer follow-up durations.