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Decreasing measles burden by optimizing campaign timing

Measles remains a major contributor to preventable child mortality, and bridging gaps in measles immunity is a fundamental challenge to global health. In high-burden settings, mass vaccination campaigns are conducted to increase access to vaccine and address this issue. Ensuring that campaigns are o...

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Autores principales: Thakkar, Niket, Gilani, Syed Saqlain Ahmad, Hasan, Quamrul, McCarthy, Kevin A.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: National Academy of Sciences 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6561209/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31085656
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1818433116
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author Thakkar, Niket
Gilani, Syed Saqlain Ahmad
Hasan, Quamrul
McCarthy, Kevin A.
author_facet Thakkar, Niket
Gilani, Syed Saqlain Ahmad
Hasan, Quamrul
McCarthy, Kevin A.
author_sort Thakkar, Niket
collection PubMed
description Measles remains a major contributor to preventable child mortality, and bridging gaps in measles immunity is a fundamental challenge to global health. In high-burden settings, mass vaccination campaigns are conducted to increase access to vaccine and address this issue. Ensuring that campaigns are optimally effective is a crucial step toward measles elimination; however, the relationship between campaign impact and disease dynamics is poorly understood. Here, we study measles in Pakistan, and we demonstrate that campaign timing can be tuned to optimally interact with local transmission seasonality and recent incidence history. We develop a mechanistic modeling approach to optimize timing in general high-burden settings, and we find that in Pakistan, hundreds of thousands of infections can be averted with no change in campaign cost.
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spelling pubmed-65612092019-06-17 Decreasing measles burden by optimizing campaign timing Thakkar, Niket Gilani, Syed Saqlain Ahmad Hasan, Quamrul McCarthy, Kevin A. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Biological Sciences Measles remains a major contributor to preventable child mortality, and bridging gaps in measles immunity is a fundamental challenge to global health. In high-burden settings, mass vaccination campaigns are conducted to increase access to vaccine and address this issue. Ensuring that campaigns are optimally effective is a crucial step toward measles elimination; however, the relationship between campaign impact and disease dynamics is poorly understood. Here, we study measles in Pakistan, and we demonstrate that campaign timing can be tuned to optimally interact with local transmission seasonality and recent incidence history. We develop a mechanistic modeling approach to optimize timing in general high-burden settings, and we find that in Pakistan, hundreds of thousands of infections can be averted with no change in campaign cost. National Academy of Sciences 2019-05-28 2019-05-13 /pmc/articles/PMC6561209/ /pubmed/31085656 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1818433116 Text en Copyright © 2019 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Biological Sciences
Thakkar, Niket
Gilani, Syed Saqlain Ahmad
Hasan, Quamrul
McCarthy, Kevin A.
Decreasing measles burden by optimizing campaign timing
title Decreasing measles burden by optimizing campaign timing
title_full Decreasing measles burden by optimizing campaign timing
title_fullStr Decreasing measles burden by optimizing campaign timing
title_full_unstemmed Decreasing measles burden by optimizing campaign timing
title_short Decreasing measles burden by optimizing campaign timing
title_sort decreasing measles burden by optimizing campaign timing
topic Biological Sciences
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6561209/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31085656
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1818433116
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