Prospective Study of Sex-Specific Adiponectin Changes and Incident Metabolic Syndrome: The ARIRANG Study

We investigated whether changes in adiponectin levels over time predict incident metabolic syndrome (MetS) in a population-based prospective study. In total, 1110 subjects were categorized into four groups according to their sex-specific median baseline adiponectin levels and the change in adiponectin levels at follow-up: low baseline adiponectin and decreased adiponectin during follow-up (LB&DF), low baseline adiponectin and increased adiponectin during follow-up (LB&IF), high baseline adiponectin and decreased adiponectin during follow-up (HB&DF), and high baseline adiponectin and increased adiponectin during follow-up (HB&IF). During the median 2.4-year follow-up period, 180 (16.2%) subjects developed MetS. Compared to the LB&DF group, the fully adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for incident MS was the lowest in the HB&IF group (0.33, (0.17–0.63)), followed by the HB&DF group (0.58, (0.40–0.84)) and LB&IF group (0.63, (0.41–0.93)). This phenomenon was more prominent in men than in women. Among the individual MetS components, increased adiponectin levels during follow-up were significantly associated with lower risks of incident low high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and incident high blood pressure. This finding suggests that a change in adiponectin level, as well as the baseline adiponectin level, might have a clinical role in the development of MetS among men.